It's a preprint but fair enough, the methodology seems legit and it's just a moderate increase over linear models. Thanks for the source, comrade.

Quite telling that on the abstract they omit Ukraine:

Per-capita excess mortality burden was highest in Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan

When their own graphs point otherwise:

The authors are likely aware that you can't get an article published in 2026 Europe if you point to the dismantling of socialism as the cause for 3mn excess Ukrainian deaths.