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this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2026
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Note that Ryan MacBeth has also said that it would be impossible for Israel to do airstrikes on Iran.
That guy often speaks authoritatively about things he doesn't know anything about.
He's absolutely certain that China is going to invade Taiwan. China doesn't currently landing ships and is putting a lot of money into the Belt and Roads initiative to establish land trade routes.
That's what we call a clue!
The US defense analysis on China invading Taiwan states that it would likely result in a stalemate. Also it says the US should spend billions upon billions of dollars on Lockheed Martin missiles.
That's what we call a clue!
The reality is while China does a lot of saber rattling over Taiwan, they likely don't actually have the capability to take the island. Yes if you put troop counts on a spreadsheet it may look like China could take Taiwan at any time they please. But then when you consider that Taiwan is an island, and the troop counts engaged in the battle would be limited to the number they could supply across the Taiwan Straight (which would likely be contested by drone boats which have been very effective in the Black Sea) and the fact that amphibious landings are actually really hard to pull off (especially if you're attempting to do it with appropriated civilian RORO cargo ships) the whole thing starts sounding very stupid. Of course everything is dependent on how willing the Taiwanese are in fighting off China. And as we've seen with Russia, just because an invasion plan is stupid it doesn't necessarily mean an authoritarian disconnected from reality won't try it.
But anyways, take the things Ryan MacBeth says with a big grain of salt. Defense analysts are often heavily influenced by the Military Industrial Complex, and they'll tend to say China is going to invade Taiwan tomorrow unless many billions of dollars worth of missiles made by Lockheed Martin are procured.
Americans are always susceptible to any version of a story that indicates they aren't complicit in wars for oil when they vote for politicians that bring down the price of gas. Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria all have oil. Sure there could be reasons other than oil for attacking these countries, but that's a hell of a coincidence, and Trump is straight up saying that he wants Venezuela's oil.
That's what we call a clue!