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Like, do you not believe the people responded the way they say they did?
No, I'm just not certain it's an accurate sample. Polls were way off in 2020 and 2016.
They actually weren't though. Trump lost the popular vote by a huge margin in both cases, which is what was predicted.
Trump won within the margin of error in 2016.
They weren't. Aggregated polling in 2016 gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. That's not low. It's actually quite likely. Him becoming president was invariably within the margin of error in many polls.
Eg. 2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2020:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/
2022:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
The media reporting on polls (and anything scientific for that matter) is universally abysmal, that's why you mistakenly think otherwise.
Define "accurate". Define "way off". What do you think a poll tells you?
What you're upset about is how you're interpreting polls - and I guarantee you you're doing it wrong.
90% chance is not a guarantee success. 30% chance is not a guarantee fail. They're probabilities.
This poll, taken alone, tells you what these people think. It's not a prediction and by itself doesn't really say much. Taken in aggregate with other polls you can start to form an idea. But NO POLL will ever tell you the future.
Not the responses themselves but the methodologies of collecting responses don't result in accurate representation of the population.
Using collection methods that skew demographics in one direction or another, like older people being more likely to pick up a phone call.
Failing to account for other potentially major variables. Like the 2016 and 2020 elections, pollsters failed to account for negative voter turnout, people who were motivated to vote against a specific candidate, which had major impacts on the elections.
In this poll responses were collected online and the sample was weighted to reflect census demographics
I like that, it's a pretty good breakdown of controlled variables. And it looks like they're factoring in socioeconomic factors too, which is always a good thing.
After the last however long of bad polling, especially in the last 8 years, it's refreshing to see some better methodology but it's still going to take a while to get that general trust back.
Most polling is done via landline phone. Thus polling does reflect well on the actual voting population.
I'm not so sure that's true anymore. I don't go looking at every single study but I usually see a mix of landline, cell/sms, and online samples
That is why I said most, not all.
It would probably particularly represent older voters, who might lean towards Trump. Although I'm over 60 and white and answer the landline phone, and I abhor him and get more progressive every day. Come to think of it, I also hang up on pollsters, so...