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How long can China play the "rare earths card"?
(arnaudbertrand.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2025
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And even in that scenario the usa would have to have an economic revolution to succeed. The us government would have to own and run the entire RE supply chain. and then what? they are just going to give them to american businesses at market prices and then let those businesses still gouge the government on weapons contracts?
There is no actual chance America succeeds at this point. It's has no production. It's entirely reliant on imperialized nations for its production and it only holds onto those with a bloated military. A bloated military it can't resupply because it has no means of production. Full of outdated, failing equipment, and any "new" equipment doesn't work for shit because what little it IS able to develop, exists just to make money for contractors and doesn't actually work. See the F-35, a jet that's as outdated before it even made it off the assembly lines, and doesn't even fucking work half the time anyway.
You are giving the f35 way too much credit. Pretty sure it is closer to not working 75% time.
The only way the us will be able to fix its issues is if China has pity on them and lets up on the export restrictions. On the one hand I really hope they don't. On the other i fear what they might do in the resulting rage fit. I could see them using nukes on a 3rd party because even their nuclear deterrent is becoming obsolete. usa loves to start a war just to burn up nearly useless weapons stocks.
The businessess would only want it if it gave a profit though, and as China hasn't stopped selling RE for peaceful purposes the only way the us could get it to be profitable is by really increasing the price of the weapons they sell, or they'd need to ban the import of RE so they can be the only supplier to themselves, and I doubt the main concern of whoever gets to control the supply will have 'actually supplying it' as their main goal. Profit will be viewed as the main goal and as such the supply will likely be kept to a minimum for maximum profit for the longest possible time, all the while more and more countries that bought weapons from the empire will move to other suppliers, namely China and Russia, growing closer to them along the way.
The imperial core bourgeoisie will likely get even more of the wealth concentrated in their hands continuing to lead to instability and further loss technological or industrial strenght...
Exactly, it's a herculean task that the US is woefully unprepared to undertake.