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submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

The American strikes are likely to be accepted – and even privately praised – by a Middle East officialdom that has long seen Iran as the primary threat to regional stability.

If Iran had hoped its neighbors would rise to its defense in the wake of unprecedented American and Israeli attacks, that moment may have passed.

On Monday, Iran fired back at the U.S. with a strike on the American Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in what is already being seen as merely a face-saving gesture. Qatar said it had intercepted the Iranian missiles and condemned the attack, calling it a violation of its sovereignty.

But even as Middle Eastern leaders were quick to criticize Donald Trump’s paradigm-shifting assault on Iran following 10 days of Israeli bombardment, the American strikes are likely to be accepted — and even privately cheered — by an Arab officialdom that has long seen Shia Iran as the primary threat to regional stability.

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[-] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

Unfortunately even a united Middle East has little chance against Israel and its American attack dog. Capitulation and appeasement is likely the more attractive option to them.

[-] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

The US couldn't win in Iraq. They couldn't win in Afghanistan.

There is no way they would "win" when the flow of Oil and Gas gets cut off for them, the Gulfs are closed for them and the closest place to stage their airforce would be in Cyprus. The US could use its navy to deny oil and gas to everyone else too, but that would bring the rest of the world against them too. To properly reestablish control, they would need boots on the ground. This would require millions, maybe tens of millions of soldiers. Just between Iran, Iraq, Syria, Saudi, Yemen and Egypt and the Gulf states that is about 350 million people. Add Turkiye, Sudan, Libya, Algeria and Morocco and you get some more 250 million more on top.

In such a scenario the US would most likely sacrifice Israel.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

The US is an oil exporter, as it produces more than it uses.

No one can cut off the US oil supply. Not to mention they could simply seize oil haulers for themselves with their navy.

Your scenario is entirely unfounded.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

No one can cut off the US oil supply.

Well, if the US invests on being able to use its own oil without mixing with anything else, the can become true.

Not to mention they could simply seize oil haulers for themselves with their navy.

A few times, yeah. The world won't react well to the US specializing into constant piracy.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

It would never come to piracy because the US would initiate regime changes, flatten militaries if they refuse to coup their governments and take the oil fields.

The whole thing is like some child considered oil supplies for the first time and believes there aren’t plans in place.

Hint: every developed nation has strategic oil reserves and is ready to go to war if supply is cut.

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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2025
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