this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2023
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https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/05/g2a-confirms-stolen-game-key-sales-pays-40000-to-factorio-devs/
I had a better link on my old Lemmy instance but that one went the way of the dodo and I can't find that in-depth explanation.
Basically Factorio never goes on sale. Ever, it only gets more expensive so, if someone is selling a key for a price lower than their starting price point it must have been fraudulent.