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this post was submitted on 29 May 2025
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No Stupid Questions
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No such thing. Ask away!
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They're actually only about 48% accurate, meaning that they're more often wrong than right and you are 2% more likely to guess the right answer.
For this reason, they are inadmissible as evidence in court in Canada and the US, and possibly other places too.
Wait what are the Bayesian priors? Are we assuming that the baseline is 50% true and 50% false? And what is its error rate in false positives versus false negatives? Because all these matter for determining after the fact how much probability to assign the test being right or wrong.
Put another way, imagine a stupid device that just says "true" literally every time. If I hook that device up to a person who never lies, then that machine is 100% accurate! If I hook that same device to a person who only lies 5% of the time, it's still 95% accurate.
So what do you mean by 48% accurate? That's not enough information to do anything with.