this post was submitted on 13 May 2025
467 points (100.0% liked)

TechTakes

1858 readers
608 users here now

Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.

This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.

For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

GPT-1 is 117 million parameters, GPT-2 is 1.5 billion parameters, GPT-3 is 175 billion, GPT-4 is undisclosed but estimated at 1.7 trillion. Token needed for training and training compute scale ~~linearly~~ (edit: actually I'm wrong, looking at the wikipedia page... so I was wrong, it is even worse for your case than I was saying, training compute scales quadratically with model size, it is going up 2 OOM for every 10x of parameters) with model size. They are improving ... but only getting a linear improvement in training loss for a geometric increase in model size, training time. A hypothetical GPT-5 would have 10 trillion training parameters and genuinely need to be AGI to have the remotest hope of paying off it's training. And it would need more quality tokens than they have left, they've already scrapped the internet (including many copyrighted sources and sources that requested not to be scrapped). So that's exactly why OpenAI has been screwing around with fine-tuning setups with illegible naming schemes instead of just releasing a GPT-5. But fine-tuning can only shift what you're getting within distribution, so it trades off in getting more hallucinations or overly obsequious output or whatever the latest problem they are having.

Lower model temperatures makes it pick it's best guess for next token as opposed to randomizing among probable guesses, they don't improve on what the best guess is and you can still get hallucinations even picking the "best" next token.

And lol at you trying to reverse the accusation against LLMs by accusing me of regurgitating/hallucinating.