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For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/
- Consider including the article’s mediabiasfactcheck.com/ link
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Scenario: Israel strikes Iran with missiles, but this time Iran responds for real, with many dead. Maga shithawks jump on the conflict like they've been drooling to. Escalation spreads to Iraq and the arabian peninsula. Russia leans in heavily but in other theatres, chaotically. The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence, and with internal tensions stretched thin due to authoritarian members of the union. Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly and the USA pulls out.
While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan. Shit gets real everywhere, multiple African nations pulled in. Layers upon layers of conflict reflect the global complexity of it all.
If USA attack Iran together with Israel, Iran doesn't stand a chance. It will be a very short war like when USA invaded Iraq.
There is no logical path for that.
Russian military is a joke now, they have their hands more than full in Ukraine.
That doesn't make much sense, but let's say there is a "whatever" reason. That would just make the defeat of Iran even quicker.
China has kept it's distance from the conflict, and I don't think China wants to actively increase instability in a world where they are making so much progress. Instability is bad for business. The way China has behaved NOT helping Russia much for 3 years, shows they would much rather participate in deescalation.
This is probably your best point IMO, but as I see it, China has to wait at least 5 more likely 10, until China has independent chip production that at a minimum matches Taiwan and the west. At this point in time, an invasion of Taiwan would be very disruptive to many of the industries that are most important to China.
Even then it's a very big question if China thinks it's worth the enormous diplomatic crisis that would follow.
So all in all, I don't really see your thought experiment having much risk of leading to a world war.
Even though other scenarios might exist, I don't really see that as a risk we should worry too much about.
Putin going even more crazy and using nukes is probably the biggest danger the world is facing ATM. Gaza is next to irrelevant by comparison.
But I suspect if Putin uses nukes, many of his allies will abandon him. And he will become a valid target for the entire world, and the Russian federation will not be allowed to survive.