this post was submitted on 01 May 2025
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[โ€“] [email protected] 13 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Notable at the very bottom is a disclaimer suggesting they just ran a SurveyMonkey poll for nine days and only had less than 20,000 validated votes. That's hardly "Most Americans" considering there are over 340 million people living in the US right now. This NBC News Stay Tuned poll was powered by SurveyMonkey, the fast, intuitive feedback management platform where 20 million questions are answered daily. It was conducted online April 11-20 among a national sample of 19,682 adults ages 18 and over. Reported percentages exclude item nonresponse and round to the nearest percentage point. The estimated margin of error for this survey among all adults is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

[โ€“] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

I guess it's my turn to point out that through statistics, you only need a sample size of 1067 to survey a population of 340 million with a confidence level of 95% and a 3% margin of error. In general, you can survey a small number of people for even very large populations, and return useful results. This idea can be played with using any sample size calculator online.

It is also my duty to say that the adequacy of this sample size would be predicated on the sampled population being representative of the overall population. For online polls of this nature, it's likely but not a certainty that the sampled population is not representative.