this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2023
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Technology
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It'll take a miracle for Lemmy to get anywhere near Reddit's active user count. Convincing users to migrate to a new platform is one thing, but getting them used to the concept of federation is the tricky part. I remember when I first signed up for Matrix, and being confused when picking the domain, authentication rules, etc. for the first time.
Mastodon is on 12 million users now...
i can agree with this. I think the reason why a select few instances are growing bigger is because people don't quite get the concept of federation yet, probably due to the fear of missing out on what others have to say outside of their instance. The main reason I joined beehaw was because it wasn't too big, but now I am starting to realize that as long as your instance is federated to bigger ones, you basically don't need to leave your own instance to view other communities, which is a kind of weird experience, but also kind of refreshing. I basically came into it with the fear that with decentralization I wouldn't have access to everyone else, and everyone would be fragmented into their own communities, and those fears are partially alleviated now. There are some concerns about instances i do want to get to, like lemmygrad, but for now, I am pretty content.
As anything it'd start with the techies, the platform becomes stable and tools are developed to make onboarding easier. My intention is to replace any communities that I can replace with Lemmy. We'll see from there. The [email protected] community is already taking off (naturally), now I am kinda hoping [email protected] and an OSRS (2007scape) community takes off.