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There's a lot of money to be made by selling stuff to the US. I'll be surprised if Canadian companies and trading agreements didn't revert to their pre-Trump arrangements within a few years of him leaving office.
Will he ever leave office?
Also, Trump isn't the only reason all of this shit is going down. It's the entire Republican party. It's every ICE agent, it's the Supreme Court deciding a president is above the law, America is rotten to the core.
Richest country on the planet with plenty of land, many climates allowing a diverse range of crops, and various resources like oil and ores. And they've fucked it, just to get their hands on more and more dollars, to what purpose? Greedy fucks.
He's an old man. Either Americans will get rid of him, or he'll die of old age.
Is that new? The US has/had many great attributes, but they've never been as good as their PR pretends. Jim Crow, the Trail of Tears, Iraq, Vietnam, the CIA, etc.
I can't disagree.
Oh, you misunderstand me.
Absolutely yes, people will continue to trade with the US after a few years. Hell, they are still doing it today!
What’s different is the level of dependence the rest of the world will enable in the future. Their special status no longer applies; and there is no trust they will be good actors in the future.
Long term cooperation will be built in anticipation of likely irrational and volatile behaviour. Something like the integrated North American auto industry or aligning with the US as primary defence contractor or intelligence, these mistakes will be not be repeated.
There will continue to be trade, but across the world a higher priority will be given to domestic production and alternative suppliers for critical products. For example Canada had been slowly retreating from our protectionist policies on dairy — but instead I expect these to now be strengthened. I expect to see a stronger push away from reliance on the US for military equipment, semiconductors, financial and digital services, and more.
Their special status is money, a productive economy, and a massive military. Trump may damage those attributes, but I suspect the US will generally retain them.
And other countries will line up to get access to that trough. Even if governments don't want to buddy up, the moneyed classes in those countries will agitate to get access to that market.
During COVID we said we were going to start producing our own vaccines, pharmaceuticals, and PPE. We said we would address the crisis in Canadian healthcare. In the three-ish years since the end of lockdowns, we've settled back into our pre-covid rut.
Post-Trump, it will be the same. As long as the US is a huge market, we'll eventually settle back into the NAFTA rut.
It’s not just money, it’s the realization that we are nothing to them. It’s the betrayal of seeing someone you thought was a friend stab you in the front without remorse.
So I do believe it is different this time. Perhaps history will reveal you to be correct — PP yipping about being “Americas best friend” indicates at some think the old status quo will return — but I don’t think so.
The US has managed to maintain disproportionate purchasing power for its size post WW2 due to trust and reliability. Purchasing power will inevitably erode as that trust diminishes and countries divest in the US.
Doesn't mean countries will stop selling to American consumers overnight but it will happen over the next 5 to 10 years. No one wants to do business with an unreliable partner.
It would also be naive to assume Trump does not have a successor and that a significant number of the American populace don't end up supporting him.
America has poisoned itself with its disinformation engines in the pursuit of never ending growth. Unless there is a major change in the status quo, this isn't going to change anytime soon.