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Democrats are winning special elections like it's 2018 (gelliottmorris.substack.com)

submitted 6 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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The 2026 midterm election cycle is starting off similar to 2018, with signs of mass mobilization and electoral overperformance strongly favoring the Democrats. Republican Congresspeople, for example, have faced so much resistance at town hall meetings of their constituents that many of them have skipped appearances, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been drawing crowds of 30,000+ on their “Fighting Oligarchy” rally tour of America.

Then, there is the news from last night: A Democratic candidate won the special election in Pennsylvania’s 36th State Senate District, a seat where residents voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by 15 points in 2024. And it’s not like PA SD-36 just recently moved right; in 2020, it voted for Trump over Biden by 17 points. It’s a red, red seat. And now, it’s a red, red seat represented by a Democrat.

For the 2026 election cycle so far, there have been 14 contested special elections in state house districts across the country. Using this spreadsheet of results and benchmarks, we can see that the Democratic candidates across those 14 seats beat Harris’s margin vs Trump with the same voters last November by 10 percentage points on average. That is, in the average state legislative district that has held a special so far in 2025, Harris beat Trump by 15 points in 2024. But in the special election for that average seat, the Democrat beat the Republican candidate by 25 points.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 6 days ago (1 children)

This is gonna be the cycle until America tears itself apart.

Republicans win election after their base gets motivated to get out the vote after having none of the issues affecting their material conditions addressed and the Republican party will try to shift the nation towards fascism. That'll motivate the Democrats to get out in the midterms and slow but not stop the horrors, then the Democrats will win the next election and similarly do nothing to affect the material conditions of working class Americans or turn back the fascist tilt of the nation, rinse and repeat.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Canadians won't forget (sometimes).

[–] [email protected] 8 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Yes, and worsening relations with our allies will only further the fascists goals by hastening the ever increasing hardships faced by working class Americans as they get the short end of the stick of the trade wars.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Doug has forgotten.

Danielle is on board with it all.

Their base follows