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Washington’s fantasy of a war against China
(peoplesdispatch.org)
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this post was submitted on 06 Feb 2025
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Geopolitics
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I think the current military preparation is fueled by xi's military buildup and ask for the Chinese military for Taiwan invasion options by 2027.
The united States has responded with rebuilding air and navel bases in the area and modernization programs, largely focused around the navy.
I think it lines up well with the reality of the countries involved. China's options for occupation of Taiwan will start to diminish as their population ages and shrinks and is less capable to take action. We're seeing China at their height today and they are communicating that theyre preparing options for action in Taiwan. The response is to prepare to meet those threats, which isn't really surprising. Neither do I think it's signs of the West wanting conflict with China, I think it's the opposite, a deterrence for China, clearly communicating that their threats wont go unchallenged. I think everyone in the West is hoping that deterrence is enough to prevent war, not provoke it.
Neither is it surprising that we don't see government funding companies for research in the West to the level we see China doing so. That's not really what government does in the West, companies generally take their own risk while the government may fund some select investments but generally will stay out of it. This idea that the West will adopt Chinese governance before it's shown any ability to produce long term results or cope with the risks they take on is fantasy. The West has always prioritized stability and risk management, they're not likely to change without good cause.
Realize that China has not been increasing it's military spending relative to GDP.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=CN-US&start=1989
China does not have an expansive or aggressive posture. The US has about twice the spending as a share of GDP, with a larger nominal GDP. There is nuance to this, but China is absolutely not disproportionately or aggressively building up it's military.