Geopolitics
The study of how factors such as geography, economics, military capability and non-State actors affects the foreign policy of states.
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I would say though that Turkey is unlikely to voluntarily exit NATO. Its military is currently too reliant on Western armaments, and its military industry exports to the West.
Also, historically Turkey has always aimed on playing a balancing act between bigger world powers. It has asked for BRICS membership, but if it can help it, it'll keep itself a NATO member at the same time. Perhaps distantly so, but still officially a member.
This also secures it in playing provocation games with Greece, and insult games with Israel, which it partly does to appease its nationalist and conservative population.
The only way I see Turkey exiting NATO is if NATO ousts it (which will end up creating huge problems for the alliance, as Turkey is the second biggest military force in NATO, and the US bases in Turkey are considered of great strategic importance in relation to Russia and the Middle East), or if Turkey is pressured by its new partners to leave NATO (which BRICS is unlikely to do, as it would damage their credibility as a solution to US global hegemony). There's also a third way, where the West commits some sort of unimaginably grave insult to Turkey, that inflames emotions in the country and forces Turkey to leave NATO voluntarily.