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Minnesota has a large Muslim population, and they have historically leaned towards the Democratic Party.
In a nail-biter election, polarizing this population against the campaign could be a big mistake.
2% of the population, but of course not all are voters.
Omar and Ellison are both Democrats
Democratic candidates have won 24 consecutive statewide elections in Minnesotaa dating back to 2006.
It's nowhere close to a nail-biter.
do you have any idea how close those elections have been though? 2020 Trump lost by about 7% of the vote. And that was a year with huge turnout for the DFL and a very bad year for trump. 2016, trump lost to hilary by about 1.5 %.
MN is not quite a swing state, but it's quite close to being one. Particularly when elections are coming down to less than a percentage point.
In 2020, that Trump lost by 200,000 votes. That's what that 7% represents. That's not close.
Two hundred thousand. Out of three million, two hundred votes.
You’re talking about a rounding error. In an election where Trump’s economy was in the shitter, with millions of deaths from a horribly mismanaged COVID, and all the other shit I’ve repressed because they’re just sooo much shit; and all of that motivating massive amounts of turnout for democrats and depressing turnout for republicans.
Sorry, and again, Hillary in ‘16 barely squeaked out 1.5%; and is perhaps a better comparison. Minnesota is not, and has not ever been solid blue. It may not be a swing state, but it’s close to one.
Ellison won the 2022 AG's race by less than 1% of the vote.
I'd consider an inside-the-margin-of-error election a nail-biter.
The MOE.on a poll is 3.5%. Harris is already outside the MOE. Do a little research before you produce imagined scenarios. Saves t Iime.
She's been at the top of the ballot for less than a month and she's already shed 2 points from her peak.
flipping my research book to 2016
Remember that time an overconfident coastal liberal wrote the midwest off as safe and proceeded to lose all her blue wall states in between October and November?