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Yeah the heat wave isn't doing us any favors at all, except possibly making it undeniable that climate change is here and action needs to be taken. Even Republicans now are proposing a solution. It starts and ends with planning trees, but baby steps I guess.
You could very well be right that the projected emissions are incorrect and currently overestimate it. We just don't know. I prefer to be an optimist and look for reasonable explanations for the claim to still be true while addressing the odd situation (here, the rise in emissions).
Regarding the oil and gas development itself, I have a theory. I think the idea may be to smoothen the transition by still maintaining plentiful and cheap energy as we bring renewables online. Up front then we'd have higher emissions, but when possible without raising energy price, we'd phase it out. From the perspective of governing the whole country, I can understand that philosophy.
I just hope my charitable interpretation is correct and not being overly generous.