Politics

American elections, in a nutshell, come down to this. Turnout. Motivate your voters to go to the polls en masse, and you win. There just isn't that many swing voters, especially in an election like this where both candidates have been President. The reason this has been catastrophic for Biden is that appearing to be old and out of touch tends to depress enthusiasm. Combine that with the short memories of the voters and you'll have people not bothering to vote because "both options are bad". As we get further and further from Trump's presidency, people's memories start to fade, they think to themselves, "oh, he wasn't THAT bad, we had more money back then." There's also lots of people who haven't heard about Project 2025, aren't paying attention to Trump saying that he'll be a dictator on the first day, etc. They will naively think to themselves that it can't happen here, that the U.S. is somehow special. Biden's margin of victory in some of the swing states was minuscule, and that was at the height of Anything But Trump sentiment. We absolutely cannot afford to have anyone stay home. Maybe some of the post Roe effect will help spur turnout. I don't know. But presidential elections are unfortunately just a popularity contest. I really do think we need to see if there's someone charismatic that we can roll the dice on. Because "Not Trump" won't be enough, and that's pretty much all Biden ever had going for him.