this post was submitted on 19 May 2024
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That Lenin quote,
applies here. It's hard to gauge exactly when it will happen. But when it does, it will be rapid.
It depends a lot on the timing of certain things external to the US. For example, Ukraine and Palestine; China's movements; the upcoming Indian election; future EU elections which could either move more reactionary or (optimistically) people start to grow tired of taking Ls for the US; climate change; anti-colonial momentum in the Sahel alliance of Africa; etc.
To be honest, the safest overall course of action may be for a gradual decline instead of a rapid one. If the US fell within one generation, people won't accept the new reduced standard of living and are likely to still hold American supremacist / white supremacist ideas. That would increase the odds of a world war. Whereas, if the US just gradually gets shittier over a generation or two, then maybe people will understand it as an internal systemic breakdown instead of an external attack.
You are being overly optimistic here
Probably so.
despite that though we are in uncharted territory as far as having a militant, global empire collapsing with a massive world-ending nuclear arsanel
so i hope to share your optimism. we don't need a fully overtly world-conquering fascist, mask off, wild thrashing U.S. just decide to take the world with it after years of heavy tactical use of nuclear weapons to assert itself
socialism, communism, none of that would matter (except maybe
) we would just barbarism and the painful death of humanity
I had some thoughts on this but then I realized I'm not clear on what you mean by "fell within one generation." You mean the US stays more or less the same as it is now in internal political landscape, but with the addition of losing global power? Or you mean the US as a state collapses?
I mean whatever is meant by collapse of the US. I would presume that includes economic decline, geopolitical weakening, reduction or disappearance of military presence in other countries.
If, according to Lenin, this collapse could happen in a relatively short time, then how would Americans react? That’s what I was pondering. Just some half baked ideas.
I think it will take time for Americans to accept a reduced prestige and standard of living. If it happened overnight, I’m speculating that Americans would not tolerate it and be more likely to lash out violently, compared to a protracted, almost imperceptible decline. But I can totally see how the opposite could be true, that if people can see the slide happening, that it would be more upsetting than if it happened all at once.
Gotcha. I guess part of where I was hedging on in my thoughts, is if its military presence in other countries evaporated because of fast decline in power, it wouldn't necessarily be able to do a whole lot of lashing out, except for maybe internally. I do think the internally part is very plausible though, considering the amount of splintering and scapegoating there is.
None of these things are external to the US.