Abstract

Stratocumulus clouds cover 20% of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO2 levels continue to rise.

Abstract and Figures

Rapid warming in the Arctic has the potential to release vast reservoirs of carbon into the atmosphere as methane (CH4) resulting in a strong positive climate feedback. This raises the concern that, after a period of near-zero growth in atmospheric CH4 burden from 1999 to 2006, the increase since then may be in part related to increased Arctic emissions. Measurements of CH4 in background air samples provide useful, direct information to determine if Arctic CH4 emissions are increasing. One sensitive first-order indicator for large emission change is the Interpolar Difference, that is the difference in surface atmospheric annual means between polar northern and southern zones (53°–90°), which has varied interannually, but did not increase from 1992 to 2019. The Interpolar Difference has increased moderately during 2020–2022 when the global CH4 burden increased significantly, but not yet to its peak values in the late-1980s. For quantitative assessment of changing Arctic CH4 emissions, the atmospheric measurements must be combined with an atmospheric tracer transport model. Based on multiple studies including some using CH4 isotopes, it is clear that most of the increase in global atmospheric CH4 burden is driven by increased emissions from microbial sources in the tropics, and that Arctic emissions have not increased significantly since the beginning of our measurement record in 1983 through 2022.

Abstract

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a period of geologically-rapid carbon release and global warming ~56 million years ago. Although modelling, outcrop and proxy records suggest volcanic carbon release occurred, it has not yet been possible to identify the PETM trigger, or if multiple reservoirs of carbon were involved. Here we report elevated levels of mercury relative to organic carbon—a proxy for volcanism—directly preceding and within the early PETM from two North Sea sedimentary cores, signifying pulsed volcanism from the North Atlantic Igneous Province likely provided the trigger and subsequently sustained elevated CO2. However, the PETM onset coincides with a mercury low, suggesting at least one other carbon reservoir released significant greenhouse gases in response to initial warming. Our results support the existence of ‘tipping points’ in the Earth system, which can trigger release of additional carbon reservoirs and drive Earth’s climate into a hotter state.

Abstract

Perovskite solar cells are a promising technology for emerging photovoltaic applications that require mechanical compliance and high specific power. However, the devices suffer from poor operational stability. Here we develop lightweight, thin (<2.5 μm), flexible and transparent-conductive-oxide-free quasi-two-dimensional perovskite solar cells by incorporating alpha-methylbenzyl ammonium iodide into the photoactive perovskite layer. We fabricate the devices directly on an ultrathin polymer foil coated with an alumina barrier layer to ensure environmental and mechanical stability without compromising weight and flexibility. We demonstrate a champion specific power of 44 W g−1 (average: 41 W g−1), an open-circuit voltage of 1.15 V and a champion efficiency of 20.1% (average: 18.1%). To show scalability, we fabricate a photovoltaic module consisting of 24 interconnected 1 cm2 solar cells and demonstrate energy-autonomous operation of a hybrid solar-powered quadcopter, while constituting only 1/400 of the drone’s weight. Our performance and stability demonstration of ultra-lightweight perovskite solar cells highlight their potential as portable and cost-effective sustainable energy harvesting devices.

Structured Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have driven an increase in the global atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 parts per million (ppm) before industrialization to an annual average of 419 ppm in 2022, corresponding to an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) of 1.1°C over the same period. If global CO2 emissions continue to rise, atmospheric CO2 could exceed 800 ppm by the year 2100. This begs the question of where our climate is headed. The geologic record is replete with both brief and extended intervals of CO2 concentration higher than today and thus provides opportunities to project the response of the future climate system to increasing CO2. For example, it has been estimated that global surface temperature 50 million years ago (Ma) was ~12°C higher than today, in tandem with atmospheric CO2 concentrations some 500 ppm higher (i.e., more than doubled) than present-day values. Consistent with these estimates, Antarctica and Greenland were free of ice at that time. However, reconstructing these values prior to direct instrumental measurements requires the use of paleoproxies—measurable properties of geological archives that are closely, but only indirectly, related to the parameter in question (e.g., temperature, CO2). To date, at least eight different proxies from both terrestrial and marine archives have been developed and applied to reconstruct paleo-CO2, but their underlying assumptions have been revised over time, and published reconstructions are not always consistent. This uncertainty complicates quantification of the climate responses to the ongoing rise of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.