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Abstract

Waste heat production represents an inevitable consequence of energy conversion as per the laws of thermodynamics. Based on this fact, by using simple theoretical models, we analyze constraints on the habitability of Earth-like terrestrial planets hosting putative technological species and technospheres characterized by persistent exponential growth of energy consumption and waste heat generation: in particular, we quantify the deleterious effects of rising surface temperature on biospheric processes and the eventual loss of liquid water. Irrespective of whether these sources of energy are ultimately stellar or planetary (e.g., nuclear, fossil fuels) in nature, we demonstrate that the loss of habitable conditions on such terrestrial planets may be expected to occur on timescales of ≲1000 years, as measured from the start of the exponential phase, provided that the annual growth rate of energy consumption is of order 1%. We conclude by discussing the types of evolutionary trajectories that might be feasible for industrialized technological species, and sketch the ensuing implications for technosignature searches.

Abstract

Human populations tend to grow steadily, because of the ability of people to make innovations, and thus overcome and extend the limits imposed by natural resources. It is therefore questionable whether traditional concepts of population ecology, including environmental carrying capacity, can be applied to human societies. The existence of carrying capacity cannot be simply inferred from population time-series, but it can be indicated by the tendency of populations to return to a previous state after a disturbance. So far only indirect evidence at a coarse-grained scale has indicated the historical existence of human carrying capacity. We analysed unique historical population data on 88 settlements before and after the Thirty Years War (1618–1648), one the longest and most destructive conflicts in European history, which reduced the population of Central Europe by 30–50%. The recovery rate of individual settlements after the war was positively correlated with the extent of the disturbance, so that the population size of the settlements after a period of regeneration was similar to the pre-war situation, indicating an equilibrium population size (i.e. carrying capacity). The carrying capacity of individual settlements was positively determined mostly by the fertility of the soil and the area of the cadastre, and negatively by the number of other settlements in the surroundings. Pre-industrial human population sizes were thus probably controlled by negative density dependence mediated by soil fertility, which could not increase due to limited agricultural technologies.

Abstract

Climate models indicate that dry extremes will be exacerbated in many regions of the world1,2. However, confidence in the magnitude and timing of these projected changes remains low3,4, leaving societies largely unprepared5,6. Here we show that constraining model projections with observations using a newly proposed emergent constraint (EC) reduces the uncertainty in predictions of a core drought indicator, the longest annual dry spell (LAD), by 10–26% globally. Our EC-corrected projections reveal that the increase in LAD will be 42–44% greater, on average, than ‘mid-range’ or ‘high-end’ future forcing scenarios currently indicate. These results imply that by the end of this century, the global mean land-only LAD could be 10 days longer than currently expected. Using two generations of climate models, we further uncover global regions for which historical LAD biases affect the magnitude of projected LAD increases, and we explore the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks therein. Our findings reveal regions with potentially higher- and earlier-than-expected drought risks for societies and ecosystems, and they point to possible mechanisms underlying the biases in the current generation of climate models.

Abstract

Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at a disproportionate rate in Western Europe, compared to climate model simulations. This mismatch is not well understood. Here, we show that a substantial fraction (0.8 °C [0.2°−1.4 °C] of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) of the heat extremes trend is induced by atmospheric circulation changes, through more frequent southerly flows over Western Europe. In the 170 available simulations from 32 different models that we analyzed, including 3 large model ensembles, none have a circulation-induced heat trend as large as observed. This can be due to underestimated circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in view of adaptation to heat waves.

Abstract

Individual coral polyps contain three distinct components—the surface mucus layer, tissue, and skeleton; each component may exhibit varying extent of microplastic (MP) accumulation and serve as a short- or long-term repository for these pollutants. However, the literature on MP accumulation in wild corals, particularly with respect to the different components, is limited. In this study, we investigated the adhesion and accumulation of MPs in four coral species, including both large (Lobophyllia sp. and Platygyra sinensis) and small (Pocillopora cf. damicornis and Porites lutea) polyp corals collected from Si Chang Island in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The results revealed that MP accumulation varied significantly among the four coral species and their components. Specifically, P. cf. damicornis exhibited the highest degree of accumulation (2.28 ± 0.34 particles g−1 w.w.) [Tukey's honestly significant difference (HSD) test, p < 0.05], particularly in their skeleton (52.63 %) and with a notable presence of high-density MPs (Fisher's extract test, p < 0.05). The most common MP morphotype was fragment, accounting for 75.29 % of the total MPs found in the coral. Notably, the majority of MPs were black, white, or blue, accounting for 36.20 %, 15.52 %, and 11.49 % of the samples, respectively. The predominant size range of MP particles was 101–200 μm. Nylon, polyacetylene, and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) were the prevalent polymer types, accounting for 20.11 %, 14.37 %, and 9.77 % of the identified samples, respectively. In the large polyp corals, while MP shapes, colors, and sizes exhibited consistent patterns, remarkable differences were noted in the polymer types across the three components. The findings of this study improve the understanding of MP accumulation and its fate in coral reef ecosystems, underscoring the need for further investigation into MP-accumulation patterns in reef-building corals worldwide.

Abstract

Twenty years after the first publication using the term microplastics, we review current understanding, refine definitions and consider future prospects. Microplastics arise from multiple sources including tires, textiles, cosmetics, paint and the fragmentation of larger items. They are widely distributed throughout the natural environment with evidence of harm at multiple levels of biological organization. They are pervasive in food and drink and have been detected throughout the human body, with emerging evidence of negative effects. Environmental contamination could double by 2040 and widescale harm has been predicted. Public concern is increasing and diverse measures to address microplastics pollution are being considered in international negotiations. Clear evidence on the efficacy of potential solutions is now needed to address the issue and to minimize the risks of unintended consequences.

Abstract

Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss. The proposed EC changes the mean CMIP6 Amazon climate-induced carbon loss estimate (excluding CO2 fertilisation and land-use change impacts) from −0.27 (−0.59–0.05) to −0.16 (−0.42–0.10) GtC year−1 at 4.4 °C warming level, reducing the variance by 34%. This study implies that climate-induced carbon loss in the Amazon rainforest by 2100 is less than thought and that past global temperature trends can be used to refine regional carbon cycle projections.