For what it's worth I deleted my Reddit accounts and Apollo the day that Christian Selig announced Apollo would shut down on the 30th. No clue how many people will follow suit but it stands to reason that if I did others will as well. I think it'll probably be fewer refugees than some are expecting. I don't think it'll be like the Digg migration

The Fediverse is still growing and a lot of people aren’t going to want to be there during the growing pains. More likely I suspect there will be a bit of a bump that first week after everything shuts down and then it will even out. We will likely see a slow, but steady organic growth in users over the next few months as users post more content.

There will be a good size wave. The big wave is coming when Reddit sells out and forced to get rid of old reddit which is less profitable than its horrible standard interface.

Possibly, if 3rd party apps go dark and that's all some people were waiting on. I assume a good chunk of people already started looking for alternatives around 6/12 when the blackout started, so I doubt it'll be a huge bump. Anyone looking for alternatives after the 30th are the ones who may not even be that serious about it or don't care about the protest, so they're just as likely to just move over to the "official" Reddit app (formerly a 3rd party app itself called Alien Blue), just as Reddit intended.

I was already planning on deleting my comments/posts/accounts on 6/30 if Reddit didn't back down, and given that their behavior has gotten even worse I'm not seeing any reason to back down from that. Hell, at this point, even if they backed down on the API thing, just their behavior since 6/12 has shown me that I don't really want to have anything to do with that site anymore.

The 30th? No. The 2nd? Maybe.

Yes

As much as I'm enjoying Lemmy, I don't see the vast majority of Reddit users making the switch to anything. Mastodon, Lemmy, and kbin are far too obscure, and most people use Reddit for pino and memes. People just aren't very technologically inclined and Reddit satisfies the dopamine fix for most regular visitors.

Maybe a bit but it won’t be a tsunami, most Redditors don’t care about the Reddit backend or mods or api changes. Don’t forget we’re just a vocal minority.

Doubtful, to be honest.

Most who have used 3rd Party apps have already migrated or found some other solution. Those who don't care are still using the official app, and, to be frank, despite what everyone says, the quality content hasn't decreased by that much.

It's still half Twitter and TikTok reposts, and one-fourth 'advice subs' (creative writing), like it's been for several years before this debacle.

Hell, maybe this is a good thing in some ways, where that kind of content can hopefully fall by the wayside over here, instead of choking communities out like it does in Reddit. (I have over 50 popular subreddits on Boost filtered out to avoid this stuff, and it's still not enough to get rid of all of it)

I would imagine most people planning to head here already have accounts, activity will no doubt go up though.

As the weeks go on though more will find this place and I'm sure there will be more surges to come.