I've learned not to be too optimistic about the end of hostilities over the past year and a half, but I do think that Ukrainian military capability is degrading rapidly now. A lot of the support that the west was able to provide previously came from existing stocks, and these have now run dry. Even western media admits that the west lacks the necessary industrial capacity to produce weapons and ammunition to sustain the levels of attrition. It's possible that Russia makes a significant breakthrough this winter, but it could take till the end of next year before everyone sits down to actually negotiate in earnest.

I really, really want you to be correct. It's exhausting.