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this post was submitted on 07 Jun 2023
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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I don't think you can use this to predict the future, but here is an interesting graph showing that the current bank failures follow a similar pattern to 2008: https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/index.html
But it's only a matter of time imo. I have a feeling money won't be playing an as large role as you would imagine. Prices can rise, but if things are just not available anymore no amount of money can help you.
I remember years ago when Enron and Worldcom collapsed. People who were retired/nearly retired lost a lifetime of investments. They found themselves on the cusp of their elder years and thrust into poverty overnight.
If (when) the stock market fails everyone is going to be in that same boat because all other avenues of saving money other than shoving it in a mattress or burying it in your yard is ultimately tied up in the market. I have to contribute to a 401k and pension plan to get employer contributions. So instead of a safe CD or savings account...my extra money is "playing" the market. I don't like this and predict it's going to get really ugly for lots of folks when finance buckles. I'm 10 years out from retirement and on edge just thinking about this. Then again, I know I won't be alone.
Until some earth destroying, population decimating event takes place. I mean a market crash is inevitable, it's kind of baked into Capitalism and is an essential part of the system. If you are talking about collapse as in full collapse, then it probably won't happen within our lifetimes. If you are talking about a market crash, then probably within the next few years. Much more likely to be after 2024 since this is the point where a lot of very large economies (US, UK, India, South Korea) have their elections, and governments (especially so in the US and UK) are likely to want to postpone a market crash until after the completion of the next elections.
A stock market crash or decline in economy isn't really caused by anything more than people, collectively, thinking the economy is going to crash, like a self fulfilling prophecy. However a full financial market collapse would, in my opinion, only come after a huge world changing event, that most likely has to happen all at once (not climate change related disasters since the events won't instantly happen all at once). It would have to be something along the lines of asteroid/comet collison, supervolcano eruption or nuclear winter.
governments (especially so in the US and UK) are likely to want to postpone a market crash until after the completion of the next elections.
That didn't happen in 2008 or 1992, so I'm not sure why you think governments are able to postpone market crashes.
Good point. I am from the UK so my knowledge is best based around the UK (though I am no expert). But I think if governments can feel a crash coming then they can make short term policies and decisions that can push the inevitable off a bit more. In the case of the UK you see the government make questionable decisions on policies that may help in the short term but make things worse in the slightly longer term. Since the Conservative party are likely confident that they won't be in power come next year, they are trying to delay a crash until then to save face. But in the process they make decisions which are very short term and will likely lead to economic decline. However, I want to doubly reiterate that I am no expert, barely an amateur. And if I am glaringly wrong anywhere please correct me and explain how I am so I can know better for next time. Thank you :)
The one thing that I take heart in is that I will probably drop over dead before I have to worry about retirement. I'm doing the best I can to set things up for my family, even though I know that there is little chance that there will be enough for them to get by.