Russian forces’ continued intensified operations toward Dobropillya likely reflect the Russian military command’s delusional belief that it will be able to restore operational maneuver on the battlefield. A Russian seizure of Dobropillya would not enable Russia to make sweeping advances in Donetsk Oblast, however. The Russian military command originally intended to use Dobropillya as the western anchor of a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt meant to meet Russian forces that were supposed to advance on the northern flank of the Fortress Belt through Lyman to eventually meet up in Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast.[9] Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction has defeated Russian forces’ attempt to develop the northern pincer, rendering the possible seizure of Dobropillya meaningless within the framework of the original campaign plan since that plan is no longer feasible.[10]

The Russian command has shown no indication that it has changed its original campaign plan to account for the defeat east of Lyman, but it could conceivably hope to use a drive north from Dobropillya to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Kramatorsk and the rest of the fortress belt cities. Russian forces have shown none of the capabilities that would be necessary to undertake such an operation, however, as they remain unable to conduct rapid operational maneuver. An operation to seize Dobropillya and then subsequently launch an offensive against Kramatorsk from the west would require enormous quantities of manpower and resources and take years, if it is possible at all.

The Russian military command does not appear to have modified plans even for the forces defeated by Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction. Operation Vivaldi collapsed the Russian salient north and northwest of Lyman that was intended to be the base of the northern pincer of the Russian encirclement of the Fortress Belt. Ukrainian counterattacks have both denied Russian forces the opportunity to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the north and blocked Russian plans for enveloping Slovyansk itself from the northeast. The Russian military command nonetheless appears committed to its original campaign design even in this sector.