I started out with my safe ones as well. I'm really priveledged that I already had such amazing supportive friends and most of my family. Julia, I hope that you're able to find better IRL friends or that your existing friends come around.

And I still have to figure out how to manage coming out to my conservative Catholic family

easy: just tell them that you've decided that the ancient (christians love antiquity) beauty ideal of long, flowing hair and a female posture is superior after all and that you reject the modern, secular short haircut, etc.

Well, what are they going to do? Ask "hey, are you transitioning?" If the answer is no, how mortifying would that be? It's like asking if someone is pregnant, you don't, even if you're sure.

People who knew you before have a tendency to not notice. Think about how other kids didn't seem to change much when you were growing up, but if you looked back at old pictures, you'd notice the difference a few years made. People who are with you every day don't notice the gradual shift and don't update their perception of you unless you seriously compromise that image. They just see the same person they've always known, while new people meeting you have a fresh perspective.