cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] 46 points 1 month ago (1 child)
  • [–] [S] 13 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    first and best use of this meme. i should think of some easter eggs related to this... congrats and hope you liked it (was a nice couch)

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  • [–] 27 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    The couch can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Small request, can you add the couch’s win pct next to the number of games it has won? I’m lazy

    Thanks!

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  • [–] 10 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I won. Does that mean I should start betting on stocks? Ok.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I beat 9/10 monkeys! Damn I'm good, I should do this for real!

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  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Spamming the trade buttons seems to be a good strategy

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Wtf it's harder than I imagined

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    U r sure it's not "be at the couch"

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago* (1 child)

    I played maybe 15 games. I won one in 99th percentile and lost one in like 40th.

    You main visual is the market line, but I would make the main visual the competing lines of you vs couch, whether that’s bars or also graphed on the market. Otherwise, you’re sort of burying the mental image you want people to take away.

    There’s also times where the market went completely south, so I did nothing, and got the “enlightened” position.

    It’s a neat micro-game, but it comes off as preachy. Maybe that’s your intent, but being preachy can really turn people off. That maybe not your intent.

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  • [–] [S] 7 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    the two lines are certainly harder/confusing to follow, i preferred the absolute numbers at the top. the preachy thing is certainly a choice, i do want to make a point with this. the whole thing is based on that tone of voice. i hear you, it'll turn some people off and i think i'm ok with it. appreciate the honest feedback.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Fucking brilliant ! 👏👏

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    These are always good counter arguments to technical analysis. But I’d love to see something where you get industry news surrounding the stocks and have to see if you can also trade based on the news and noise or if the couch wins there.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (1 child)
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Interesting game. You could add crypto currencies for fun factor. Beating the couch in bitcoin trading could be an interesting challange

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  • [+] 1 point 1 month ago
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