Good! We will finally free people of work!
this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2023
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I like to compare modern LLM to Excel or calculators in the past. Some years ago a company would have an in-house team of accountants. Then came Excel and now a single accountant can do the job for 10 companies. Let's now consider programmer: currently a project manager oversees a team of programmers, most of whom are only responsible for mundane work of typing out code. With AI a single worker will be able to perform more productive than that team of programmers, because they will offload the boring work to AI and focus all their attention to what AI is perhaps incapable of.
What this article is really saying, which I agree with, is that AI improves productivity ,just like perhaps the steam engines did in the 1800's. But this time the problem is we won't increase the output and let the workers work more efficiently and earn more money, because it's not manufacturing jobs which were limited by technology that this is influencing. It's office jobs, which the economy has a pretty much fixed demand for. Workers will not improve their productivity, they will just be replaced because their work can be offloaded to a machine capable of doing that same jobs better in every significant way.
this time the problem is we won’t increase the output and let the workers work more efficiently and earn more money
I agree with what you're saying but I just want to contextualize this bit, because you make it seem like technological advances led to increased worker productivity and higher wages.
It didn't. It never has.
The government made it happen because people pressured the government to make it happen. Strikes, riots, and literal bloodshed twisted gilded arms to share the economic gains they were amassing for themselves.
And so the implication is that, sure, this phase of technological can increase worker productivity, letting the same number of office workers do more, work less, and earn the same amount. In principle, that is entirely possible. In practice, we arrive back where you say office workers will just be replaced.
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Can you elaborate on the "fixed demand" aspect?
From what I know as a software engineer, companies would simply make twice as much software, if their software engineers were twice as efficient. There are always requirements pushed out of scope because the complexity of the solution is growing and growing. The ability to make more complex software solutions with the same amount of engineers is not going to result in less engineers, it is just going to cause more complex software products.
Also note that more engineers has deminishing results due to communication losses. This, along with a fixed supply of engineers seems the biggest limitation to the industry to me.
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My gawd, zoomers are so effed. I have loads of internships but I'm sure getting a job will be so hard. My internship right now encouraged me to apply for a open job but my application was denied due to lack of experience! Granted, I still have a year left of school to do but still its government they take months to hire and by then, I'll be close to graduating! I dunno, I'm just going to hold out hope and wish someone will hire me.
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Gen Z getting screwed, well that's a first. I hope this doesn't start some kind of trend.
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I'm fine with that. I'm not going for a career anyways, most of us aren't.