• The Joint Maritime Information Center keeps the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman at critical risk.
• The running count reaches 21 attacks since 1 March, against a historical Strait of Hormuz flow of about 138 ships per day, with only one ship moving on 24 March and zero attacks in the prior 48 hours.
• Cargo traffic sits in single digits and tanker traffic remains extremely thin, and the eight to 10 tankers mentioned in the president's cabinet remarks do not show up in the count here. Iranian control over passage
• Iran keeps the strait open for vessels it does not tie to its enemies and blocks or pressures vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, or countries backing their operations.
• Trump pauses planned strikes on Iran's energy system until 5 April while negotiations remain unclear, and a strike on Iranian energy is a major escalation.
• Iran imposes a $2 million transit toll, and paying it can create sanctions exposure for companies that do business with countries restricting Iran.
• Passage now runs through a permission regime that can require crew lists, cargo details, voyage details, bills of lading, and routing near Larak and Qeshm before a ship gets through.
• A small containership sailing from the United Arab Emirates toward Pakistan is forced to reverse, and later larger vessels also turn back. Red Sea spillover and energy logistics
• The Houthis move back toward the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea picture, and even without new shipping attacks the threat hangs over the Yanbu export surge.
• Yanbu may be moving about 5 million barrels per day and possibly 7 million, but renewed attacks off western Saudi Arabia would turn that outlet into an expensive and fragile workaround.
• Fully loaded VLCCs cannot use the Suez Canal, so a Red Sea disruption would force shuttle movements, extra anchorages, and higher costs. Insurance, timelines, and economic pressure
• The U.S. political-risk insurance program with DFC and Chubb arrives late in week four, after traffic has already stalled and owners have already made other insurance choices.
• A crisis lasting weeks is already bad, months would be far worse, and the knock-on effects hit bunker fuel, aviation fuel, LPG, LNG, helium, sulfur, urea, DAP, MAP, and household fuel markets well beyond the U.S.
• Fuel stress is already spreading across countries such as Australia, the Philippines, Pakistan, and India, while the strait still matters to the U.S. because it affects both direct imports and global pricing.

Marine traffic over 26 to 28 March

• MarineTraffic shows a modest uptick in movement, especially for Indian LPG cargoes, with BW Elm and BW Tyr crossing for India while several bulk, crude, chemical, and gas carriers continue testing the route.
• Lotus Rising and Sapphira turn back, and the Hong Kong-flagged CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean head toward Larak, stop, and return to the UAE anchorage.
• The turnaround of the two large Chinese boxships is the clearest sign that safe passage is still unreliable even for ships tied to countries Iran calls friendly.

Military posture and near-term outlook

• The Tripoli amphibious ready group is in the area, and the southern Omani side of the strait and nearby islands are possible staging areas for Marines to screen traffic and counter Iranian pressure from the north.
• Abraham Lincoln remains relevant after replenishment, Ford stays delayed by major fire damage, Bush has not yet sailed, and follow-on Marine forces from Okinawa and Hawaii remain part of the possible next steps.
• The next U.S. move is still unclear, and the overall cabinet messaging looks confused and unsettled.

References

• [00:00] Update 023 to JMIC Advisory Note: 01 - 24 March 2026 — https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-023---jmic-advisory-note-24-mar_final.pdf?rev=5ebdc361d56a4098b62b9c78b44d6d15
• [00:02] Iran Says Hormuz Open To All But 'Enemy-Linked' Ships — https://gcaptain.com/iran-says-hormuz-open-to-all-but-enemy-linked-ships/
• [00:03] Trump Delays Iran Energy Strikes as Confusion Swirls Over 'Productive' Talks — https://gcaptain.com/trump-delays-iran-energy-strikes-as-confusion-swirls-over-productive-talks/
• [00:03] Iran Imposes $2M 'Toll' on Ships Transiting Strait of Hormuz — https://gcaptain.com/iran-imposes-2m-toll-on-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz/
• [00:05] Iran Demands Crew, Cargo Details to Send Ships Through Hormuz — https://gcaptain.com/iran-demands-crew-cargo-details-to-send-ships-through-hormuz/
• [00:08] Trump Official Says Hormuz Ship Insurance Program to Launch 'Soon' as Tanker Traffic Struggles to Recover — https://gcaptain.com/trump-official-says-hormuz-ship-insurance-program-to-launch-soon-as-tanker-traffic-struggles-to-recover/
• [00:09] Chinese Boxships Abort First Hormuz Exit Attempt, Undermining Iran 'Safe Passage' Claims — https://gcaptain.com/chinese-boxships-abort-first-hormuz-exit-attempt-undermining-iran-safe-passage-claims/
• [00:13] Iran Signals New 'Permission-to-Transit' Regime in Hormuz After Blocking COSCO Vessels — https://gcaptain.com/iran-signals-new-permission-to-transit-regime-in-hormuz-after-blocking-cosco-vessels/
• [00:13] Two India-bound LPG tankers crossing Strait of Hormuz out of Gulf, data shows — https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/two-india-bound-lpg-tankers-crossing-strait-hormuz-out-gulf-data-shows-2026-03-28/