I think they'll pin this on a fall guy that fits their narrative.

his a high profile pundit but not really an 'activist' in any kind of essential role for the MAGA

I disagree on this. He was basically the biggest "independent" media voice among those that are tied to MAGA at the hip, hence the famous "I trust my friends in the government [Trump's White House]" for why he was swearing off the Epstein stuff.

I think the violence on campuses thing is also a stretch here, but otherwise I agree. Nonetheless, I think Shapiro is a better target in every respect other than being the Israel hardliner of the online left, including being Jewish so the attack could be spun as "antisemitism," so I think if it was on the initiative of the White House and not Mossad, he's a much better target.

Kinda but not really. Charlie Kirk was the kind of grifter who doesn't believe in much of anything, he will say whatever benefits him the most at any given moment. Right-wing audiences generally aren't happy with how Trump is handling the Epstein stuff, and there's a noticeable rift in right-wing influencers between those who tow the government line no matter what (Ben Shapiro, Charlie Kirk, Tim Pool) and those who say what their audience wants to hear (Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens). Outside of Epstein, this is also very noticeable when it comes to Israel.

Kirk got yelled at by his audience when he first tried to defend Trump from the latest Epstein news so he caved a little until, if I recall correctly, he got a direct phone call from Trump himself and fell back in line. I don't think his personal beliefs factored in anywhere. There are right-wing influencers who genuinely believe what they say, but Kirk wasn't one of them.

It's worth considering, but security personnel do sometimes have hand signals as normal operating procedure for a litany of reasons, like not cluttering comms, not creating undesired noise (he was right next to Kirk who was speaking in public and taking questions), not competing with ambient noise, and being understood over distance without needing to again cause one of the aforementioned problems. Most security people are going to be formerly military or police, where such signals are commonly used (or at least taught, in the case of cops). It's also part of the "operate" aesthetic that those piggies love.

While it narratively looks right to have a dude signal for the attack right next to the target, like Judas betraying Jesus by kissing him, I don't think there's really all that much reason for there to be signals down to a "fire now" from someone right next to Kirk when the event is highly public, has many uncontrolled cameras on it, Kirk mostly isn't really moving during the presentation anyway (he was sitting down), and we don't have reason to think that exact moment is an especially good time compared to 30 seconds earlier or later, plus the dude was not trying to conceal the gestures at all. It would be absurd for someone to blatantly produce a hand gesture that was covertly to tell the shooter to fire when he was so close to Kirk and therefore sure to be caught on camera like he was.

Overall, I think it's extremely unlikely, though again it's a question worth asking. I agree with the other commenter that being startled isn't a strike against the theory, but there are too many other factors against it.

ended up not mattering but the thing where his gun didn't cycle because of the extra weight hanging off the barrel is also a solved problem with several options: use a different kind of handgun where the barrel doesn't need to move, use a little "booster" doohickey so the action doesn't have to move the whole mass of the suppressor to cycle, or tune all the working parts to account for the suppressor (and then don't shoot the thing unsuppressed because it'll have too much gas)

I mean i would certainly like to take their guns.

Shooter must have aimed for the face, no wonder he missed.

Nah. You can see in the video (which is obviously incredibly graphic and I wouldn't recommend anyone watch) he immediately passes out. The shot effectively ripped open his carotid artery causing his head to dump blood and his heart to pump out all of his blood. He was passed out within one or two seconds. I'd suspect dead in under a minute due to no oxygen to the brain.

realistically probably not, there was a lot of blood like 2 seconds after the shot

Most likely not, with this amount of blood he must have lost consciousness before shock passed.