Abstract

Aspergillus species cause severe infections in humans, livestock, and plants, and are widespread environmental saprotrophs. With rising global temperatures, climate change is expected to alter the ecological niches and spread of many fungal pathogens. Here, we use global metabarcoding data and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to predict the current and future environmental suitability of three pathogenic Aspergillus species: A. fumigatus, A. flavus, and A. niger. We show that A. fumigatus is more common in temperate climates, while A. flavus and A. niger dominate in warmer regions. Future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) suggest northward shifts in suitability for all three species, particularly under severe warming. We combine the MaxEnt model with spatial models of crop growing areas and human population and show that geographical shift will occur on Aspergillus species along different climate scenarios. A literature review revealed that clinical prevalence of invasive aspergillosis correlates with environmental suitability and we show that different continents have differential expansion or reduction of Aspergillus suitable habitat.