I wanted to diagram the mechanism of history, how events change one moment into another.

You have two things that oppose one another but also require one another. That's your contradiction in Moment 1. Contradictions cause change, because they form an inherently unstable system. Eventually the contradiction is resolved through change. The change can be taking on a new form that enhances stability, or annihilation. This is the basis change. The new form can and likely will become contradictory to something else.

I used a physical system of a watch for an analogy. The watch spring is part of the mechanism yet it works against the mechanism to create tension so that the system works. The contradiction results in a change when the second hand moves. Ticking is the resolution of the spring-mechanism contradiction, but it is not stable due to friction. Therefore it requires winding. The winding again works against the force of ticking to build up tension so that the watch may operate once again.

I'm hesitant to use physical systems as analogies because that's a trap capitalists fell into and continue to fall into. I want to work up some historical examples to show it as well.