.

Doesn't matter. Get off the couch. Vote.

Bring your friends.

This aged well /s

That aged well

The headline is misleading.

Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver's model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

So a better headline would be "Simulations show Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the election." The difference between them is insignificant.

And when you factor in all the underhand cheating tactics the Republicans have up their sleeve, the Democrats' tendency to cave, and the Supreme Court's bias, Trump looks a lot more likely to win than Harris.

Please flush the Orange Turd.

BuT tHeY wErE WrOnG iN 2016!1

Yes, and no. They estimated a slightly higher chance for a Hillary win over a Donald win, but they were well within the margin of polling error, and they have been for every election. Plus people have a tendency of over-valuing a "51% chance to win".

While this is good news, it could mean nothing.

EDIT: 538 explained it better than I ever could:
"Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically ahead.”

I wouldn’t be surprised if what we learn from this election is how it wasn’t really close at all, and all of the polls were extremely wrong.

I’m basing this on the fact that more newly registered voters are voting this election than in decades, and all of the polls only account for “likely voters“ based on their registration and party affiliation without taking into account all of the new voters. Most of the new voters are likely to vote Democratic.

Every poll is a lie.

Vote!

Fuck the forecast and Vote!

50.015% literally means that neither candidate is favored to win. Take out a coin, assign Harris as heads and trump as tails, now flip the coin a bunch of times - and that's exactly how often Harris or trump is likely to win the election

EDIT

Nate Silver just posted his final pre-election blog post and he explains very clearly that this is a dead even race. Either candidate is just as likely to win as the other candidate.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined

I dont care what the polls say. I voted, you should vote, tell your friends and family to vote. Tell the stranger down the street you barely know to vote.

Americans have made it clear that will never elect a woman. This election was a mandate against women

Polls be dammed. If Kamala doesn't win a significant victory today, I'll be shocked and my faith in humanity will be shaken. Again.

The safest prediction of 50/50. No matter who wins they can claim to have called it.

The fucking media!

Look at this.

These two posts are about the exact same data from the exact same source:

Notice the subtle difference?

This title was written by a moron specifically to appeal to morons.