this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2024
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[–] [email protected] 18 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Both. I do believe that "communism will win" as an inevitability (with one big caveat, see below). Capitalism obviously is unsustainable and rife with internal contradictions that can only lead to its eventual demise. The obvious and broad example being that it requires infinite growth on a finite planet. But I think it can get very bad before it gets better, and expect it will further devolve into fascism (much more so than it already has) for most if not all of the western world, and the entire world will suffer as a result. Socialism, then communism will eventually emerge (since fascism is just as doomed by its contradictions as capitalism is), but before we get there, I expect there is going to be some truly unimaginably dark and horrible times on the way there. So in that sense, I am ultimately optimistic about the future of the world, but extremely pessimistic about its more immediate future.

But now for the caveat. I think that most people, even leftists, don't fully appreciate how much climate change is going to reshape the world. There is a real chance that it will get bad enough that civilization may not survive, that humanity as a species will be among the many that don't make it through the mass extinction we've only just entered. Even people fully on board with knowing climate change is bad and must be curtailed as much as possible as soon as possible still mostly don't realize how much a genuine existential threat it is on a planetary scale, on a scale of centuries and longer. It is by no means a certainty, but given the feedback loops we don't fully understand and definitely don't know how to interrupt, there is a possibility of Earth even going the way of Venus. Obviously I hope that's not the case, but it would be a mistake not to recognize the extreme potential of climate change. If we are able to mitigate it in time, I am like I said, ultimately optimistic. But I am beyond afraid that we won't be able to mitigate it in time.

In other words, it's not just "socialism or barbarism," it's socialism or annihilation.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Unscientific take on climate change, IMO

What I've read from scientists/experts doesn't paint that picture at all.

Catastrophic weather events will kill millions, but not a billion.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Then you need to do more reading because I did work in this field and have read the science on it as well. First all, you have to take into account what time scales are being discussed. What you're reading is, I'm all but certain, just talking about the coming few decades, in which yes, millions at least will likely die. And even then the science that tends to reach the public is toned down, pacified, and doesn't represent the whole truth. You should be familiar with this as a communist trying to get an understanding of what's really going on with the world via popular journalism. Is what you're reading about "catastrophic weather events" also discussing what will be happening 1000 years from now? 10,000? Despite the longer scale, what we are doing right now and in the coming decades will have an effect on those longer scales. Climate change is so much more than simply an intensification of weather events. It is literally a rapid change to the composition of our atmosphere. An atmosphere which has, by the way, been completely altered by life in one of the most chemically fundamental ways possible, from a reducing atmosphere to an oxidizing one. This is what I mean when I say even many leftists just do not understand how extreme the risks are here. A runaway greenhouse wouldn't just kill a billion, it could well end our species and most other species of "higher lifeforms."

[–] [email protected] -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

you: "That's unscientific"

get shown that it is in fact scientific

you again: "I disagree."

You don't seem to understand how science or reality works.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

The further into the future you try to predict, the less reliable the model.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago

My internal legal counsel has advised me not to discuss the topic with myself

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago

Technology used to be a thing to be optimistic about. The past 10-15 years or so has been a bit of a let down with capitalism fucking everything up.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Very pessimistic. Besides the current problems like wars and Trump becoming the next president of the USA (which as a European citizen really scares me), climate change is going to fuck over human scociety big time in my life time. Well, it already is but still humanity as a whole is doing jack shit about it. Giant oil companies keep digging for new oil and gas, the best selling cars are unnecessarily huge SUV's, planes are still being subsidized rather than trains, humanity keeps eating meat, plastic usage and production is barely going down.

The current problems the news is full about don't really matter in the long run when we're literally making our planet unliveable and humanity is clearly still denying it.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

According to the GIEC (IPCC) report if nothing changes, and nothing is changing as you remarkably said, the fall of our society will start in 2040 because of food shortages due to the climate.

2000 fucking 40! It’s tomorrow. I am destroyed by this future and really don’t understand corporate and/or politicians.

I still have friends making babies and not think that their life will be miserable in less than 20 years.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I feel you. I want children but agreed with myself long ago that they will be adopted because I don't want to bring children onto this dying planet.

My country (the Netherlands) is going to be majorly flooded within the next 100 years (but probably sooner) but the majority of buildings built to stop the housing crisis are still build under sea level in the major cities.

People think they're not climate change deniers but 95% of them most definitely are.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

I think that’s the one yes. Decreased food yield from 2040 to 2099 onwards.

Also, even if I’m not into that, an old fart like Nostradamus or something like that (I don’t remember his name) wrote at the time that humanity will be greatly reduced around the first part of the 21th century. And now scientific studies more or less agree with that.

I have hope that humanity will change, I have zero hope that the ones who can do things (industries, huge corporations, rich peoples, politicians) will do something.

Apparently it’s better to die seated on unused billions rather than having a living world for your kids.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (4 children)

There was four years of Trump and nothing particularly bad happened.

In fact, global instability has been markedly worse in the four years since.

which president's administration directly attacked Europe with the Nord Stream II bombing?

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

There was four years of Trump and nothing particularly bad happened.

Except that time a million and a half people died and literally the whole country had to stay inside collecting unemployment and washing our groceries while all of his followers got super amped up and violent because they weren’t (always) being allowed to make things worse

And that little bonus surprise at the end and how a sizable portion of the country including some important judges hates elections and anyone who makes them happen now

I mean there’s more but those are good starters

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago

Under Trump America withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. I'd say that move did negatively affect today's global stability.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

There was four years of Trump and nothing particularly bad happened.

He didn't really have a plan for his first term. That's why he only was able to do a few bad things. This time around there is a plan.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

The plan just seems to be more standard American bullshit. Which would happen no matter who was president. Remember how genocide Joe was going to save democracy? Instead the creepy bastard murdered hundreds of thousands of innocent people.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I wouldn't classify Project 2025 as "more standard American bullshit".

It's basically a guide on how to turn the USA into a fully fascist country within one presidential term.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

What's the difference between fascism and full fascism? A distinction without a difference.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I put that in so people don't come out of the woodwork to tell me that the US already have some fascist tendencies.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

The US is already fully fascist.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

actually, it would seem that the nordstream attack was a bipartisan effort, with the plan already having gotten support under Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrFdHO7FH8w&t=1260

interviewer: what's your relation like with vladimir putin? donald trump: i think it's very good, but i was tough with him. i ended the pipeline. it was called nordstream 2.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago

Realistic. The world will be fine, not so much for most of the lifeforms that currently populate it. Earth has gone through evolutionary resets before. The existence of deep sea hydrothermal vents with methane loving organisms means that Earth will most likely NOT become like Venus, even when all feedback loops run their course. The carbon released and washed into the oceans will feed the species that produce oxygen, just as it has before.

Humans have become their own asteroid.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I see the near future/current world as basically RoboCop but more gore and less funny. and also without RoboCop.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

Instead of RoboCop we're gonna get those robot killer dogs from Black Mirror

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

Pretty pessimistic, short term (the next decade or two.)

I am optimistic about socialism and anarchism very long term (the next 100-1000 years,) maybe just because I try to remain hopeful on stuff like this.

Humanity has created some incredible things, we have so much potential to be a boon for the planet, for the animals, and for each other. But we must oust Capitalism, corporatism, statism, and fascism to even have a chance.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think that the first 20 to 30 years will be very difficult for humanity. There is a distinct reactionionary movement that is blocking or even reversing progress needed to fix various problems (including, but not limited to climate change, destruction of ecosystems, housing problems and the world population aging beyond sustainablitiy). It will get very messy.

After the boomer generation has died out as well as my own (GenX-er here), humanity can hopefully look forward again. As I age, I really think that it is our two generations that are blocking progress. As millennials and Gen Z ages, they will hopefully learn from us how not to do things.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

I just don't see how. They are equally indoctrinated into the societal constructs that are creating the problems. The "boomers" were equally and imperfectly against the negative operating principles of their society when they were younger. They got played. Now we are faced with even more powerful special interest group (the ultra rich), with even less checks and balances than during the past 80 years. And now we're getting played too

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

I assume you mean in the long term, like looking centuries or more out. If the scope is different my answer might be different.

It's a total unknown to me. The biggest question is where the Enlightenment came from after millennia of producing the same system over and over again, and if it's here to stay. MAD and GAI are the other two big existential threats. Other problems can all be recovered from in the long arc of history. (Yes, even climate change)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Pessimistic/realistic. There's lots of pollution, most food is low quality because it's cheaper to manufacture and aiming for looks rather than increasing quality raises profits. Technology is specifically made to be hard to repair and has set lifespan plus all the licensing and subscriptions. No privacy. Everything moving to cloud for even more control. Corporations have way too much power and can get away with almost anything. Supermarkets can be more and more expensive without signing up for their loyalty programs. Education is stuck in the past. ...

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Optimistic, because, why not?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago

Because capitalism.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Extremely pessimistic to the point that I have a planned out when the dumpster fire gets close enough to ruin what little peace I have.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will, etc

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Optimistic. I am going to singlehandedly will the future I want into existence

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Optimistic. Even if we all die, consciousness can evolve again. Even if we end up tortured for all eternity by robots, after a few million years we’ll be godlike and able to transcend that reality. Those who would be able to create it recognize this fact, and so there’s a mechanism by which the most intelligent are most aware of the inescapability of karma.

Given the perfection of the information ecosystem in its most abstract form, I predict increased pleasure and joy and decreased betrayal and suffering as time goes on.

Might be right in the near term, but everything will be okay.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Even if we all die, consciousness can evolve again.

Yay! Time to re-evolve and make all the same mistakes again! Infinite suffering, forever!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

Nuclear annihilation is the least painful route we can take.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

Is this some sort of trick question

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago

Pessimistic.

The more times I see people not fighting for the rights and benefits that they deserve, the more I am shying away in disappointment. We continually allow defeatism to cloud us to where it's no wonder why governments, corporations and other filth have such a field day with us.

I'm just waiting for something, anything, to put all of us out of our misery.