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Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-4) | Lab 48% (+2) | Lib Dem 11% (+2) | Other 17% (-1) Via Deltapoll.
(twitter.com)
๐จ๐จNew Voting Intention๐จ๐จ Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 24% (-4)
Lab 48% (+2)
Lib Dem 11% (+2)
Other 17% (-1)
Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 | Sample: 1,000 GB adults | (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON ๐ณ | 24.0% | 119 |
| LAB ๐น | 48.0% | 425 |
| LD ๐ถ | 11.0% | 47 |
| REFUK โก๏ธ | 6.0% | 0 |
| Green ๐ | 5.0% | 1 |
| SNP ๐๏ธ | 3% | 32 |
| PC ๐ฎ | 1% | 4 |
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON ๐ณ | 44.7% | 376 | 24.0% | 0 | 309 | -309 | 67 |
| LAB ๐น | 33.0% | 197 | 48.0% | 320 | 0 | +320 | 517 |
| LIB ๐ถ | 11.8% | 8 | 11% | 13 | 0 | +13 | 21 |
| Reform โก๏ธ | 2.1% | 0 | 6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green ๐ | 2.8% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP ๐๏ธ | 4.0% | 48 | 3.3% | 4 | 29 | -25 | 23 |
| PlaidC ๐ฎ | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2 |
| Other โฌ๏ธ | 1.1% | 0 | 2.2% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| N.Ire โฌ๏ธ | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
Scotland EC Break-Down
| Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | 34% | 9% | 2% | 9% | 34% |
PrincipleFish
That would be a brutal election result. I'd hope it'd inspire Starmer to be more radical but it is more likely to entrench him on the right of the party and suppress any kind of dissent.
I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers...this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn't have anything glaring out at me that's horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible's more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.
This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn't the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn't like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.
Dare we start to hope?
I don't think we need to hope. Unless footage emerges of Starmer biting the heads off babies, he'll win. And he's not that interesting. A house brick could get the win at this point.
I think the key will be the size of the majority and it look like it might be massive, which is a pity as there will be no need to compromise with anyone inside or outside his party and his possession as leader will be unassailable (Andy Burnham won't take another run at the top spot unless it's pretty much in the bag).
So I will likely celebrate the Tory loss on the night but then the reality will disappoint me. A bit like 1997 but faster.
Oh I don't dare underestimate the change in public opinions when it's election time and suddenly their vote is close and they have to think. I know it happened for Labour in 2017 and a bit in 2019, but it can happen either way.
Don't get me wrong, Labour could coast into a comfy majority the way things are looking atm.
And those poor Lib Dems, I do think they are being underestimated by the models, but it doesn't look amazing for them eh.
They always get hammered by FPTP but I follow politics and they really aren't on the radar - the Tories have made such a mess and Starmer is trying to play the grown-up in the room and there's just no oxygen for left for them.
It does depend on how much people just 'go labour' because thats the 'not tory' vote, and how many look at their constituency and see Lib Dems in second, Labour can't actually fight everywhere with ground game, and in many places they won't really want to mand Lib Dems can and will do.
I haven't played with the tactical voting bit of Electoral Calculus mostly because it is a nationwide value and the regions will differ so much in who they vote if they are voting 'not tory'. Wales and North go Labour far more just as a baseline, East, South and South-West go Lib Dem more but not in cities, London does Labour, Lib Dem and Green in different ratios depending on borough.
It's all a bit of a fun nightmare to try that's also a guess and there's no public tools (I know of) to try it even if you wanted to, which I kinda do; as any level of tactical voting hammers the Tories even more than these predictions and that's always fun to see.