this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2024
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Geospatial
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That rocks:
Being able to set it at +4 ( historical evidence puts us WAAAAY above that, with our current CO2-levels, alone, even while ignoring methane ),
and change it to showing number-of-days-per-year-above-40C .. and Texas, California, Brazil, ALL of Saharan Africa, some southern Africa, the Middle East, India, most of Australia, etc, turn dark red.
Looks like a bloodbath, given how we the species "deal with" such pressures with bullets fired against the lives of "other" populations..
Very interesting resource, that.
Too bad they stop it at +4, instead of accepting the historical evidence putting it higher than that.
Here's the historical-facts paper which puts us above +5C right now, without including the methane 1.3ppm to 1.4ppm ( use an 82.5x multiplication-factor to convert methane to 20y CO2 equivalent )..
They're using a powerlaw:
Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798
280ppm + ( 280 * 2^(1/9) ) == +1C
280ppm + ( 280 * 2^(2/9) ) == +2C
and so-on: a doubling of CO2 produces +9C.
with the current added-methane, you get between +8C & +9C for current-atmosphere's composition, which makes stopping-at-+4C .. idiotic.
_ /\ _
You forgot the "over the next few millennia" part.