this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2023
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GenZedong
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What do you think about Russia Europe relations after war? Is Russia going to keep the trade relations low to let US suck Europe dry or they gonna forget their hostility and start exporting again?
I expect Russia will be open to dialog, but they will demand a new security architecture in Europe outside of NATO. It's also possible that Russia will try to pull countries like Hungary and Serbia into its sphere if economic situation in Europe continues to deteriorate.
It's really hard to say right now. Russia seems to be taking a pragmatic stance on that. We can see how they've been dealing with Turkey for example, where they continue cooperation even as Turkey keeps playing games. What I expect Russia to try to do is to break up NATO and EU by peeling countries off. Hungary is the obvious choice, and they might be able to get them to flip. France, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Germany might decide that they've had enough as well. Maybe one option could be that China steps in to provide some security guarantees, and a new security framework outside of NATO is created. Ultimately, Russia's concern is with US and they don't really see individual European countries as any real threat.