this post was submitted on 12 Dec 2023
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I honestly don't think he'll be able to run. Two or three major things are counting against him.
His health. He's 77, unhealthy, and he may not make it to 78. Both his parents died very old, mother - 88, father - 93. They also had far fewer health concerns though. Plus he caught COVID-19 with most 70-year-olds getting some sort of form of long covid.
He might be federally barred from office. On March 4, 2024, his insurrection trial will start and if he is found guilty it would be very difficult for any legal system to state he can still hold federal office.
He might not even win the primary much less the federal election. There are a lot stronger republican candidates out there and the GOP is starting to see that Trump is a dividing force. If they don't go with him, they might split the vote between him and a GOP, if they do go with them, they might split the vote to Democrats.
Lastly and this is like 3.5, Napovointerco might be enacted. If that ever happens the GOP might not win another election. It's essentially a state pact that these states will honor voting with the national popular vote regardless of what the people in the states vote for. It's almost at 270 electoral votes. At that point, it will be enacted and the national popular vote will be the deciding factor going forward. The Electoral College will be dead. This also has an interesting side effect that it might cause a civil war.
Federal courts might call this a non-justiciable political question. Individual states might bar him from the ballot, but good luck getting a lot of red states to do that.
They might but we'll see. Also it's not the red states that matter. It's the purple ones.
I don't see how. According to Wikipedia, states with 203 electoral votes have passed legislation - but states with pending legislation only bring in another 65 votes, which is still short of the 270 votes needed - and that's only if all the states with pending legislation pass it instead of sending it back to committee, deferring it, or outright defeating it.
It may pass eventually, but I certainly don't see it happening before next year's elections.
The 2024 legislation might put them over but it's a long shot.
I think the electoral college itself could also cause a civil war given time and larger differences between the popular vote and who is declared winner.
Yeah, potentially.