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Amazon's Project Kuiper secures 3 launches with SpaceX (www.aboutamazon.com)

submitted 11 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Yeah, 9 Atlas Vs doesn't get far with 1600+ satellites.

I wonder how many of the 3 new rockets will launch more than 5 times in 2025. I guess I wouldn’t bet on any? Maybe Vulcan?

Barring some catastrophic failure, I'd be surprised if neither Vulcan nor Ariane 6 achieved 5 launches in 2025. They've both had fairly successful static fire campaigns, and are targeting Q4 of 2023 and Q2 of 2024, respectively. I'd be very surprised if New Glenn launched more than 5 times in 2025.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

Falcon 9, Atlas V, Ariane 5, and Delta IV couldn't get to 5 launches in year 2.

Of the 3, I have the most faith in ULA to make it happen because of their experience and schedule pressure. Retooling existing Delta production lines seems like it should reduce their mfg teething issues. The same logic should apply to Ariane 6, but they've barely been launching Ariane 5s for the last few years, so I'm not confident.