Football / Soccer / Calcio / Futebol / Fußball

As we know the greed of FIFA knows no borders so we needed more teams and more games for the World Cup at the cost of the format which will be rather crappy compared to how it has been with 32 teams. The World Cup 2026 in Mexico, Canada and USA will be played out between 48 teams which also means that the qualification process isn't how we knew it from recent editions, here I will try to explain the new formats.

The increase of countries who are allowed to participate per Tournament:

UEFA (Europe) 13 ---> 16

CONMEBOL (South America) 4.5 ---> 6

CONCACAF (North America) 3.5 ---> 6 This already includes the 3 host countries, so actually only 3 spots are played out in the qualifiers.

CAF (Africa) 5 ---> 9

AFC (Asia) 4.5 ---> 8

OFC (Oceania) 0.5 ---> 1

the decimal .5 means that there have been intercontinental play-offs for one spot.

If you counted precisely you'll have noticed that the numbers only add up to 46, not 48. These 2 remaining spots are played out in inter-confederation play-offs, more on that later.

Oceania (1 spot)

Let's start with Oceania cause why not? First a short recap on how their format looked like for the Qatar WC: Oceania consisted of 11 National Teams but 5 withdrew due to various reasons such as Covid-19 or well... Tsunamis. There were 2 teams with 4 teams each, but it was all very messy cause in 1 of the 2 groups only 2 teams really played cause the other 2 teams only withdrew after the format and draw was already decided. The 2 best teams from each group played out the winner in one-legged semi-finals and a final. The winner in the end was unsurprisingly New Zealand who faced Costa Rica in the Inter-continental play-off.

2026: The format basically stays the same. There will be 2 groups with 4 teams each, the 4 teams face each other just once and granted teams don't withdraw again there would be a pre-eliminary round where the 4 worst ranked teams play out the 8th spot for the 2 Groups. The 2 best of each group play out the winner again in one-legged semi-finals and a final. This time the winner will not have to play another game but is definitely qualified for the World Cup. And the loser of the final gets a second chance through the back door that is called inter-confederation play-offs, details on that in the last paragraph.

North America (6 spots but only 3 played out through qualification)

For 2022 35 teams competed in the qualification process. In the 1st round 30 teams competed as the 5 highest ranked got a bye to the 3rd round. In 6 groups with 5 teams each, the 1st of each group advanced the the 2nd tound in which the 6 faced each other in 3 head-to-head ties of which the 3 winners advanced to the 3rd round joining the Top-5. These 8 times faced each other twice in a league format, the Top-3 qualified for the WC, the 4th faced New Zealand in the intercontinental play-off.

2026: There will be 32 contestants, the countries seeded 29-32 will have a pre-eliminary round where the 32 plays 29 and 31 plays 30 in two-legged ties. The 30 teams that are left will once again be located into 6 groups with 5 teams each where everyone faces each other once, but this time the 1st AND the 2nd of each group advancs to the last round. These 12 teams are once again divided into different groups: 3 groups with 4 teams each. In this group stage everyone will face the other 3 teams of the group twice, the 3 group winners are qualified for the WC 2026. Of the 3 2nd placed teams in the 3 tables the 2 with the best record in their group will get a 2nd chance and enter the inter-confederation play-offs.

South America (6 spots)

The CONMEBOL encompasses 10 teams, for the WC 2022 all were in 1 big group where everyon faced each other twice and the Top-4 went to Qatar, while the 5th, Perú faced Australia from Asia (lol) in the in the intercontinental play-off.

2026: Nothing changes, the format stays the same but this time the Top-6 qualifies directly for the World Cup 2026 and the 7th gets a 2nd chance through the inter-confederation play-offs.

Asia (8 spots)

AFC started the qualifciation process for 2022 with 46 teams of whom North Korea withdrew a few games in and Qatar dropped out after a certain stage cause they only participated because it also served as qualification for the Asian Cup for which they weren't automatically qualified. In a Pre-eliminary round there were 6 head-to-head ties of the teams ranked 35-46 to knock out 6 already. In the next round the 6 winners as well as the 34 other higher ranked teams formed 8 groups with 5 teams each from which the 8 1sts of the group (excluding Qatar though) as well as the 5 best 2nds of the groups advanced to the 3rd round. These remaining 12 teams played in 2 groups with 6 teams each, everyone faced each other twice and the first 2 of each group went to Qatar, the two 3rds UAE and Australia played out the participant for the Inter-continental play-off (vs Perú) in one game.

2026: There are again 46 teams, this time for real because there's no Asian host. There's again a pre-eliminary round, this time a little bit bigger with not 6 but 10 H2H matchups of the teams ranked 27-46. This leaves the best 36 Asian teams for the next round which are spread into 9 tables á 4 teams. Everyone plays each other twice and the Top-2 of each group advance. These 18 teams are located in 3 groups with 6 teams each. Again everyone faces each other twice and the Top-2 of each group advance, namely directly to North America. But there are still 2 spots left, right?

The 6 teams which rank 3rd and 4th on the 3 groups advance and form yet another 2 tables with 3 teams each (this is ridiculous imo). Everyone faces everyone once in a neutral venue. The two teams which top their group go to the World Cup 2026. The two 2nds face each other in a two-legged tie to determine the team which is allowed to enter the inter-confederation play-offs.

Africa (9 spots)

For Qatar 54 countries (here you can actually say countries and it's not wrong I think) contested for the 5 spots. In a brutal pre-eliminary round the 14 teams ranked from 27-40 were drawn against the teams from 41-54 and faced each other in 2-legged H2H ties to determine the 14 teams who are allowed to advance. Ethiopia, Liberia and Djibouti (3rd worst ranked team) managed to overcome their underdog status and go through and knocked out Lesotho, Swaziland and Sierra Leone (2nd highest ranked team). The 14 winners joined the other 26 teams of the continent and were drawn into 10 groups with 4 teams each in which everyone played everyone twice. The 10 group winners advanced to the knock-outs which were drawn based on the FIFA World Rankings. In these 5 2-legged H2H ties the 5 African contestants for Qatar were determined.

2026: Africa experienced the biggest format change. They scraped the pre-eliminary round and put all 54 teams into 9 groups with 6 teams each. Everyone faces everyone twice in their groups and the 9 group winners are qualified for the World Cup. The 4 best 2nds of the 9 groups will in one-legged semi finals and a final play out the 1 team that will get a second qualifying chance through the inter-confederation play-offs. As you might have noticed Eritrea withdrew by now which does affect the comparison of the 9 teams that will finish as 2nd in their group. According to Wikipedia "Neither CAF nor FIFA have made an official announcement on how Eritrea's withdrawal will affect the rankings of the group runners-up." UEFA's way to go for such cases usually was to drop the results against the team of the group that finished last to be able to compare the teams with the same amount of games played.

Europe (16 spots)

For 2022 the qualification started with 55 National Teams but Russia was banned at a late stage of it due to the invasion of Ukraine. All teams were distributed into 10 groups with 5 or 6 teams each. Everyone faced each other twice and the 10 group winners went to Qatar. 12 more teams played out the remaining 3 spots, they were drawn into 3 sets of 4 teams where the 4 teams played out 1 winner in semi finals and a final. These 12 teams were the 10 2nds of the groups as well as the 2 best UEFA Nations League 2020/21 group winners sorted from A to D. In this case Austria and Czechia from Nations League division B were the best group winners to not rank among the Top-2 in their respective groups.

2026: The format is very similar to 2022: All 54 (or 55) teams will be distributed into 12 groups with 4 or 5 teams each where everyone faces each other twice. The 12 Group-winners are qualified for the WC. 16 more teams play out the remaining 4 spots, in a 4 single match play-offs of semi-finals and a final. These 16 teams are the 12 group-2nds and the 4 best group winners from the UEFA Nations League 2024/25. Unlike all other continents Europe does NOT send any team to the infamous inter-confederation play-offs.

I****nter-confederation play-offs (2 spots)

2026: 2 teams from North America, 1 each from Oceania, Africa, Asia and South America and none from Europe participate in this play-off. Based on the FIFA Men's World Ranking the 2 best teams get a bye to the final where they face the winner of one of the semi-finals between the other 4 teams. The ties are one-legged as they are played in the host countries of the World Cup and therefore a neutral venue.

Just for fun I calculated what is the maximum of games a team may go through when it qualifies in each continent:

Oceania: 2+3+2+2 = 9, realistically it will be just 5 games though cause I doubt a team from Oceania will get through the inter-confederation play-off and no team of Oceania's bottom 4 will win the qualifier.

North America: 2+4+6+2 = 14, in reality it will be 10 games and if anyone manages it through the back door 11 or 12 games.

South America: 18+2 = 20, 6 teams will go through with 18 games played and possibly one more with 20 or probably rather 19.

Europe: 8+2 = 10, the teams who are drawn into a group with just 4 teams and come first, will have needed just 6 games to qualify, the ones in a 5-team group 8 games and the ones who get there through the single match play-offs 8 or 10 games.

Africa: 10+2+2 = 14, 8 countries will reach the WC with 10 games played, Probably Zambia or Morocco just 8 because they are in the Eritrea group and if a team makes it through the inter-confederation play-off it might need up to 14 games to qualify.

Now to the most interesting one, Asia: 2+6+10+2+2+2 = 24, Well, good luck for that. Realistically, it's 22 or 21 games (because no team of the pre-eliminary round is gonna get that far) depending on the FIFA Ranking but that's still a lot. The teams who qualify regularly will have played 16 or 18 games.