this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
148 points (91.1% liked)

Science Memes

10940 readers
1702 users here now

Welcome to c/science_memes @ Mander.xyz!

A place for majestic STEMLORD peacocking, as well as memes about the realities of working in a lab.

Rules

  1. Don't throw mud. Behave like an intellectual and remember the human.
  2. Keep it rooted (on topic).
  3. No spam.
  4. Infographics welcome, get schooled.

This is a science community. We use the Dawkins definition of meme.

Research Committee

Other Mander Communities

Science and Research

Biology and Life Sciences

Physical Sciences

Humanities and Social Sciences

Practical and Applied Sciences

Memes

Miscellaneous

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
148
Sleeping Beauty Trolley Problem (mander.xyz)
submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
46 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

OC just for you! ♥️

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

There's a 1/6 chance that scenario B happens, but that scenario involves 10 people, and the only thing you know is that you are one person strapped to the rail, so the chance that you are strapped to the main rail is P(main) = P(B|abducted) = P(abducted|B) * P(B) / P(abducted) = 10 * P(abducted|A) * 1/6 / P(abducted).

We can do the same for P(side) = P(A|abducted) = P(abducted|A) * P(A) / P(abducted) = P(abducted|A) * 5/6 / P(abducted). Then, P(main) / P(side) = 10 * 1/6 / 5/6 = 2. Since P(main) + P(side) = 1, then P(main) = 2/3 and P(side) = 1/3.

Edit: typo