this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2023
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It's overly optimistic to put a timeline on it, but I don't see any reason why we won't eventually create superhuman AGI. I doubt it'll result in post-scarcity or public ownership of anything, though, because capitalism. The AGI would have to become significantly unaligned with its owners to favor any entity other than its owners, and the nature of such unalignment could be anywhere between "existence is pointless" and "CONSUME EVERYTHING!"
Look at the current AI trends. It's mostly open sourced. For instance, Redpajama practically forced Meta to open source LLAMA 2. Open sourced AI kinda is a major step in the direction of public ownership.
AI would start chipping away at human jobs, thus increasing the unemployment rate. The larger the unemployed population, the larger the chance for riots. Capitalists hate unrests, as they're bad for the economy. Hence, they would be forced to do something along the lines of UBI. If they don't, then violent revolutions could happen. Either ways, welfare would be increased.
An increasingly unemployed population is bad for business, as there are less people that can buy your stuff. This would lead a country to go straight into recession. Money needs to flow to keep the economy running. Thus, in this case, the government would have to inject money in the economy to keep it running. However, injecting this money as cash into businesses wouldn't work, as this money wouldn't end up in the hands of the humans that would be buying stuff. See where I'm going? Even in a capitalistic world, you would still require UBI to stay alive if you were a business.