Lugansk: 100%
Kherson: 94.3%
Zaporozhye: 72.49%
Donetsk: 60.29%
Kharkiv: 33.15%
Nikolaevskaya: 4.83%
this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2022
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Death to NATO
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I was a strategic miscalculation from the beginning and then rotten Russian elite decided to "make peace" and "showed good will" by withdrawing forces from Kiev which resulted in nazis massacring people in those regions. Now the don't have other option but to do what needs to be done aka eliminating Ukraine as a state. However, since Russia is not at war officially, the forces are severely limited, moreover nazis destroy everything they leave, however, looking at the situation, right now time is on Russian side with EU struggling and it's not even autumn yet.
I always wondered why do they show ''mercy'' on Ukraine, didn't they already crossed every line for that? Until that point, Kiev was very close to being 100% surrounded from all sides and to fall, it would be over until now if they continued, wonder if northern front will be started again soon.
Also, so now the goal is eliminating Ukraine as a state, I thought it will just be annexing half of it and change the government in what's left of it in western part.
First, taking such big of a city is not easy. You either siege it, waiting for surrender, causing incredible atrocity for civilian population or take it in a street fight which basically means widespread destruction and even more atrocities.
Not to mention Russia never wanted to take Kiev back then, just a single look at engaged forces would tell you this - it was strategic feint to divert Ukrainian army - don't forget Ukraine have constant numerical advantage, and early in the war it was even more, and they did not lost most of the equipment back then.
How long do you predict war lasting, is it realistic to end next year, spring or summer maybe?
No idea, i was wrong about the war starting in the first place. I guess by now it is foremost political, than economical and only on the last place a military conflict. USA and their vassal EU declared a total economical warfare against Russia - they pulled out from nothing. But they made a mistake with military part, as it is the strongest side of modern Russia - and after some pondering i think that's exactly why that war started - because Russians calculated this is how they have most chance. Of course it was incredibly risky, if less countries ignored the US sanctions, Russia would be fucked quickly. But the risk was apparently well calculated and it is currently paying off - USA and EU are steadily bleeding their economy and their military resources in this war way faster than Russia (without even directly participating!), and this in one of the major reasons why Russia is going so slow - they don't really have any other means to weaken the west. And their target is actually the same as USA - it was never war for Ukraine, nobody give a shit about that, it was a war for Europe, either Europe remain as US vassals and spiral down to being huge Puerto Rico, or they break off and finally start to do what EU was theoretically created for, or the EU shatters.
So i would carefullty say that this war will probably last till either EU breaks or Ukraine surrenders.
The ruble is stronger than it's been in a decade so they might have calculated the risk. At the very least I can believe they expected this to happen.
(this graph doesn't show the 2000s where the ruble was steadily stronger. This graph compares roubles to the Euro)
Yeah, it is obvious they did not moved before having guarantees from China. Possibly also from India and other trade partners.