this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2023
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I think it will be both. Accounts created with Threads will have their own walled garden but will have the option of interacting with other fediverse communities.
There is a very real possibility that it will be designed in such a way that it's initially federated, but will slowly get to a point where they can see mastodon posts but mastodon can't see their posts. (Adding non-activitypub features and standards) All the benefit of having an already active userbase with none of the work for organic growth, and none of the downsides of competition in the long term.