Apparently Earth has about 500 million years until photosynthesis begins to decline, which gives us such a large and beautiful potential future if we achieve a communist society. Also 90% of all the stars that will ever be born has been already. Idk maybe we are amongst the first intelligent civilizations to exist but maybe intelligent life terraforms themselves into extinction if they don’t overcome this filter.

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[–] 13 points 15 hours ago* (2 children)

I think, broadly, a less cynical reading is this; a universal constant might be that individuals within a collective will always tug and pull between distributive and accumulative resource management. Other species might experience an echo of our struggle filtered through their own conditions.

For as radically different as aliens could be I feel there's an equal possibility that they could be mundanely similar in certain ways. It's hard to imagine (based on our understanding of the universe) life evolving without natural selection giving way to evolution through competition and then pushing cognitive capacity by socialization etc. And if that path is typically followed I could easily see resource management being a broad filter for developing societies, wherein a struggle must be always be resolved where the collective is given priority. If not, the species is unable to reach a certain level of shared intellectual development for higher technologies/forms of society.

There would be exceptions to this of course, like the universe is infinite so there's going to be wildly different conditions giving way to unimaginably different societies - but I can see where OP is coming from and am kinda inclined to agree it might be a trend out there.

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  • [–] 12 points 13 hours ago (1 child)

    I think your view is valid, but I also think it's very "current lens in history" centric. The current conditions lend themselves toward people dooming about the future of humanity. Whether it's fears of nuclear war or it's crossing irreversible climate change feedback loops. These fears are real and valid, but are only a small blip in the overall history of humanity. Maybe this really is the end for most people or maybe it will one day be a footnote that was worked through and it may be seen in retrospect as something that obviously could be overcome.

    Survival of life, of a species, is never guaranteed. From that standpoint, any number of things could result in the death of a civilization or even a species. But in the case of the human species, it has also gone on for a very long time and could yet go on for a very long time still.

    I guess what I'm trying to get at is, the argument is not without any basis, but it also assumes a lot about similarity of systems and risks dipping into mechanical materialism with a sort of inevitability-based argument about the nature of development. We don't yet even know if other life has ever existed in a similar way to humans, or does exist now. Personally, I'm not convinced that the basis of the Fermi Paradox is even meaningful to begin with, but maybe I'm underestimating the scientific knowledge that goes into it.

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  • [–] 5 points 10 hours ago

    Yeah I think I agree with a lot of this too. Talking aliens in general is just a fun thought exercise and I trend towards a more boring 'based on the available data' read. It also makes me hopeful to think the solidarity I feel with mankind could extend even further.

    My read on the Fermi paradox is also similarly noncommittal. I think it adds some texture to discussing the unknown but I agree there's nothing actually tangible there.

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