A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image depicts Kim Jong-un accompanied by China's Wang Huning, crossing the New Yalu River Bridge on a day's visit to China.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe situation in the Middle East remains very tense, with the two major points of speculation being 1) whether the war will resume at all, or if the US is bluffing to try and get Iran to concede on their demands, and 2) assuming the war will resume, whether the US will conduct strikes on Iran before or after the elections within the Zionist entity; the point being to try and further delay the elections by citing the war they started as an emergency and therefore keep Netanyahu in power. Quite frankly, if Netanyahu wants to risk destroying the whole Zionist project just to save his own skin, then I have no objections - aside from the part where he might do immense damage to the world economy in the process by prompting Iran's promise of regional retaliation, of course. Meanwhile, the Saudis keep getting pummelled, with Ansarallah landing missile after missile on pipeline pumping stations, airbases, military officials, and troop accumulations. Even the Western media is becoming dour about MBS's prospects. Attempts to isolate Iran economically are becoming rather spotty. Pakistan briefly halted their border exchange with Iran, but once Iran splashed cold water on their face by restricting their fossil fuel exports into Pakistan - which is already in a politically unstable situation - they wised up quickly and reopened them.

Next up, we have the surprising victory of Lula in the second round of the Brazilian elections. A loss in the first round into a victory in the second round hasn't happened in Brazilian history since 1989, and the president winning a fourth term via a democratic vote is unprecedented - and I fully confess that I went into this thinking Bolsonaro was gonna scrape by with a ~0.5% lead, so I will publicly and gladly admit to being wrong. The regular suite of electoral irregularities and not-quite-illegal tactics took place to try and prevent Lula from gaining the requisite votes, including a swathe of widespread interruptions to public transportation in cities that typically vote for Lula, as well as Meta putting a thumb on the scale by apparently reducing the visibility of Lula's online campaign. However, countering that was an upsurge of people who were otherwise unengaged who presumably went "oh shit" when they saw the first round results, as well as an emergency two hour extension to voting in order to counter the aforementioned public transportation interruptions. The next year or two will determine if Lula's victory is a curious aberration or instead a breakwater to the rising tide of conservatism in Latin America, fueled somewhat by explicit American intervention but mostly by the populace themselves finding little hope in lukewarm social democrats and instead finding community in, among other places, right-wing evangelical religious groups. I recommend RedSails 2023 piece, Reformists, Revolutionaries, and Social Liberals, which delves into the broad contours of the Latin American and particularly Brazilian political landscape, and how even reformism has been essentially abandoned in many countries in the region (and, therefore, why ground has been ceded to the right-wing lately).

It remains difficult to keep track of global events as the crisis worsens. The Hormuz oil glut prophesized by the US military and its quislings is still yet to show signs of being founded in reality, with Brent oil prices now reaching highs resembling those in the period of outright war in April, and emergency fuel supplies in the US being increasingly dipped into. While the biggest cause of this price increase is obviously the literal scarcity of oil, some of this trend is due to comically high tanker rates (which are that high due to a number of factors but which all still ultimately stem from Iranian strikes on tankers trying to slip through the strait), and some of it is due to China amping up their oil imports just in time for the US midterms, which puts further stress on world supplies. All of this pressure continues to feed protests and riots, of which those in Europe have received the most attention. The pressure on populations is coming at the exact same time that broader financial conditions reach points that usually prompt austerity measures, creating a pressure cooker of contradictions which governments will have to attempt to survive. Some have already failed to do so, such as Serbia's - however, as I said last week, the root cause of the dissatisfaction is typically another factor that the economic problems are merely fueling (i.e. in Serbia's case, a student movement).

As a more positive final note, Kim Jong-un visited the Chinese border city of Dandong to commemorate the 76th anniversary of Chinese troops marching to help northern Korea during the Korean War, with both countries reportedly seeking to deepen their industrial and trade cooperation. The New Yalu River Bridge between the two has finally formally opened after a 12 year delay, shortly after a bridge between the DPRK and Russia was completed last month.


Last week's thread is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 66 points 1 day ago* (1 child)

https://archive.ph/Qd9YS

The port-call situation is wearing out Navy warships

Diego Garcia is the only safe place for ships fighting Iran, but the remote atoll can’t provide the maintenance they need.

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A few years ago, a port call in the Middle East might mean bottomless-mojito brunches in Bahrain, hitting the indoor ski slopes in a Dubai megamall, or a desert safari in Qatar. But since Operation Epic Fury began eight months ago, U.S. warships in the theater have basically had just one option: Diego Garcia, some 2,500 miles away. It’s not great for morale, but the consequences go beyond disgruntled sailors who tire of fishing off the British island in the Indian Ocean. The remote coral atoll lacks the pierside infrastructure that many Gulf, Mediterranean, and Pacific ports can offer. As the Navy stretches its fleet with longer deployments and fewer port calls, warships are losing the ability to do crucial mid-cruise maintenance. “When a ship is deployed overseas for longer than the nominal seven-month deployment period, that increases the amount of time for equipment on the ship to break, get worn down, or worn out. As a result, when the ship finally does make it back to the United States, it might need more maintenance and repair work than it would have needed if the deployment had not exceeded seven months,” said Ron O’Rourke, who retired this year after more than 40 years as a naval analyst for the Congressional Research Service. “That can increase the time and cost to do the maintenance and repair work, and an increased time needed to do the work could prevent other ships from entering maintenance and overhaul as scheduled. This can lead to a cascading effect in delaying maintenance on other ships.”

A Navy officer with expertise in maritime security agreed, noting that “even deployed ships need time alongside”—that is, moored directly to a pier or tender vessel for what’s called voyage repair availability—“to fix broken things, remediate rust, paint, etc. If these ships are kept out for 10 to 12 months, they’ll be missing other scheduled maintenance events and be much more broken than they should be when they get home.” The Navy itself nodded to the problem in a recent press release about the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, which is changing homeports to receive overdue depot-level maintenance after a nearly 11-month deployment. “Regularly scheduled depot-level maintenance maximizes the lifespan of our Navy vessels and keeps our fleets lethal, modern, and ready to defend the nation.” The Lincoln’s 321-day deployment—and the carrier Gerald R. Ford’s 326-day deployment before it—set records for consecutive days at sea and length of deployment, respectively. But a few Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers are on track to far surpass those numbers. And Navy officials recently told families in Yokosuka, Japan, that for the foreseeable future they should expect all ships to deploy for 10 to 12 months. A Navy spokesperson said they would “not discuss specific readiness rates, operational requirements, force-allocation deliberations, or future force movements. However, we remain committed to regular maintenance to maximize the lifespan of our Navy vessels and keep our fleets lethal and ready to defend our nation.”

‘It’s empty’

Instead of the luxury hotels and hundreds of restaurants sailors can visit in ports like Dubai and Bahrain, Diego Garcia has a military supply base and a small town with a handful of restaurants. And since virtually every ship deployed in the region is using the island for port calls and resupply, store shelves don’t always stay stocked.

lol. lmao. country with the best logistics in the world, folks!

looking forward to when the treatlerite troops launch a mutiny because they were deployed to a base with too few restaurants treatler

The guided-missile destroyer John Finn, which left Japan in January, pulled into Diego Garcia after months at sea. “Everybody’s going to the ship store and it’s empty,” a sailor’s spouse told Defense One. “You can find ice cream, but you’re not going to find your necessities that you need to function.” The ship had pulled in because it was “empty,” the spouse said, after having spent all of its weapons in the campaign against Iran. “So they had to spend that week resupplying.” The spouse of a sailor on the Mustin, another guided-missile destroyer, said her husband was able to get socks but not shoe polish at the exchange on base during the only port call the ship has made since leaving Japan in April. “He got off like, preparing to be able to get the stuff that he needed right now, and he goes, ‘They don’t have shit,’” she said. “They didn’t have anything.” For the Mustin crew, the port call seemed like a welcome respite from their months at sea, until they were told just before getting off the ship that they would not return in August as originally planned, but stay deployed until April 2027, the spouse told Defense One. “The sad part is, they were actually in good spirits,” she said. “And then I know things went really rowdy in Diego Garcia because they were given the bad news literally the day before they pulled in. … There was one of the nights in Diego Garcia that two sailors ended up in the ER with alcohol poisoning. And so then they lost their last night of liberty because of it.” O’Rourke said the British island “can provide an opportunity to be on land for a while, and to engage in certain R&R activities. But the options for doing R&R things at Diego Garcia are a lot more limited than they are at other ports, such as Singapore or somewhere in the Mediterranean.” Ralph Cossa, chairman of the Pacific Forum, was less diplomatic. “Please shoot me if that’s the only R&R I’m going to get in 10 months,” he said.

Mail delays

Sailors have asked their families and friends to send them supplies, but mail is taking three to six months to reach the destroyers, the spouses said. The Mustin spouse sent her husband six boxes at the end of June; he received one in September and the rest in October. The John Finn spouse said it took four months for a few packages to reach her sailor, and some that “took even longer than six months to get out there.” “I think I’ve sent my husband the same thing three different times now, and I’m like, well, hopefully one of these gets to you in the next two or three months, and whenever the other ones show up, you’re just gonna have an abundance. Share it with somebody else.” Both spouses expressed concern about the sailors’ ability to vote in the upcoming elections, given the mail delays. The John Finn spouse said her husband, who has done multiple deployments in the past, said, “There has been no conversation about voting because we don’t have time for it. We don’t have time to even have conversations because we are busy doing all of this other crap that nobody wants to be doing to begin with.” By contrast, sailors aboard the George Washington aircraft carrier generally “can expect to receive mail shipped from the states within weeks,” Lt. Cmdr. Bobby Dixon, a ship spokesperson, told Defense One. “However, this can take longer when deployed overseas. We work with our U.S. military logistics teammates to minimize mail delays and we are committed to ensuring all service members can exercise their right to vote.”

Maintenance

Navy ships, like any other vehicles, require a certain amount of maintenance to continue working. There are three levels of repairs: basic, intermediate, and depot-level maintenance. Deployed ships are under stress from the salt water and sea air, and more things are likely to wear down or break when they’re being used frequently for long periods of time. And the forward-deployed destroyers based in Yokosuka—including the John Finn and the Mustin—are usually in a cycle in which they spend just a few months at sea before heading back home for a few months of maintenance. Now those two destroyers are slated to be at sea for a year or more, which will mean they will miss the beginning of their planned five-month shipyard maintenance periods. And the Mustin spouse said there were already some maintenance problems on that ship when it shifted homeports from San Diego, Calif., to Yokosuka, just before it left for deployment. “Their maintenance log was 100 percent not empty,” and there were a lot of things “that they should have been turned around for,” she said. The ship was told to head to Japan anyway. And though the sailors were told their lone port call was planned so they could perform maintenance, “they never got anything fixed when they went to Diego Garcia. … They didn’t actually go up pierside.”

O’Rourke said there are consequences for delays to the intermediate and depot levels of maintenance. “If you have a period where the total fraction of the Navy being on deployment overseas is elevated above what the notional model calls for, there will be a period downstream where you have to pay the piper, where the fraction of the Navy that will be available for deployment will be less than what the notional model called for because you're making up for that earlier period,” he said.

DE-BA-SI-FI-CA-TION tony-cheer

cont'd in response

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  • [–] 20 points 1 day ago

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    It’s not a new problem. “Years ago, the Navy got itself into a hole on conventional surface ship maintenance due in part to what turned out to be underestimates in planning, scheduling, and funding that work. Since then, the Navy has been working for years to dig itself out of that conventional surface ship maintenance hole. Perturbations in ship maintenance and repair schedules caused by ships being used for extended deployments can add to the Navy’s challenge of digging itself out of that hole,” O’Rourke said. So the service needs to give its ships the maintenance they need. But that’s unlikely to happen while the Navy is keeping so many ships in theater, a second Navy expert said. “The end result is that deferred maintenance becomes more and more problematic, causing knock-on effects like parts and equipment wearing out or breaking before they should. In the end, these ships will reach their end of service life well before their scheduled date.”

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