this post was submitted on 14 Sep 2023
72 points (93.9% liked)
GenZedong
4302 readers
55 users here now
This is a Dengist community in favor of Bashar al-Assad with no information that can lead to the arrest of Hillary Clinton, our fellow liberal and queen. This community is not ironic. We are Marxists-Leninists.
This community is for posts about Marxism and geopolitics (including shitposts to some extent). Serious posts can be posted here or in /c/GenZhou. Reactionary or ultra-leftist cringe posts belong in /c/shitreactionariessay or /c/shitultrassay respectively.
We have a Matrix homeserver and a Matrix space. See this thread for more information. If you believe the server may be down, check the status on status.elara.ws.
Rules:
- No bigotry, anti-communism, pro-imperialism or ultra-leftism (anti-AES)
- We support indigenous liberation as the primary contradiction in settler colonies like the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel
- If you post an archived link (excluding archive.org), include the URL of the original article as well
- Unless it's an obvious shitpost, include relevant sources
- For articles behind paywalls, try to include the text in the post
- Mark all posts containing NSFW images as NSFW (including things like Nazi imagery)
founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Everything you said is true, but still missile interception is a risky business, if not just a “pray to god you can shoot it down” event. Plus a high altitude bomber or sub can fire cruise missiles from a 1000 km away before quickly turning tail or slipping deep into the dark pacific, so interception would be difficult there are well.
Plus American interceptors out of Guam, Japan, Okinawa, Korea, or even Taiwan itself would complicate things significantly.
But you are right that Taiwan would be generally easier to defend.
However I doubt that the US has lagged behind in supersonic missile development, because if one thing, they absolutely love their weapons of war.
A war would be a shit show and Taiwan would probably be devastated either way. Either by a Chinese assault, or an American retaliation or counter assault.
It’s also concerning to think that it might just become a stalemate. The Chinese Navy would probably turn the US Navy to scrap, but at the same time how would a Chinese amphibious force fare against a city/mountainous terrain target that’s bristling every 3 meters with artillery, SAMS, tanks, anti ship launchers, AA, and Taiwanese/American soldiers?
not wanting to be an armchair general, since i don't understand much about military things.
i make a guess that china has logistical advantage, continuous delivering ammo and weapons, they have a insanely strong industrial capability, and in a time of war that can be converted to, high speed trains make sure the equipment arrives safe and fast, while usa produced equipment would need to be delivered mostly by the pacific ocean since they don't have a reliable way to deliver to a landmass close to taiwan and just finish the deliver by water, and chinas navy is very active in the pacific which can make such deliveries hard, i think for something to be delivered safe and quick, would be by diverting equipment from south korea or japan
China has th benefit of not needing to win, they only need to create the conditions for the USA to collapse. If they scrap the US Navy, it's not hard at that point to just put things in stalemate and let the West falls apart.
Yes, but then you enter a war of attrition which has its own host of problems. After a while war exhaustion would steadily increase, and the impact of a war on china’s/the US’/the worlds economy would be devastating.
It would be a lethal game of Chicken.
I don't think it would be chicken. Without a navy, the US can't maintain supply lines to the Pacific theatre and they would need to open up a Western front and enlist Europe in the war. Japan and Australia would need to take over the Pacific front. This is why multipolarity and Chinese diplomacy are critical to ensuring that the USA doesn't have a path to victory through these proxies.
True, but I guess that all depends on how many supplies the US has stockpiled in Taiwan, and how self sustainable the island is.
Plus I doubt starving the island into submission would make the Taiwanese people very happy with China, so it’s a giant big mess no matter how you approach it.