A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Students in front of the Mujahidin Grand Mosque in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, with an ominous, thick haze obscuring vision.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe last week has been quite a busy one for world energy markets. The first big piece was the reveal that the US is removing sanctions on Russian fuel exports until April 2027. This has been yet another fascinating collision of the Ukraine and Iran Wars, and, of course, another example of all the complicated situations that countries that are otherwise geopolitically aligned can get themselves into, as obviously Russia being allowed to export more diesel does bend the curve on shortages to a degree. China "helping" the West by reducing their demand for foreign oil purchases for much of this year as they drew from their enormous domestic oil reserves is another example of this kind of dynamic. Given how much Russia has helped Iran - especially now, with large increases of Caspian Sea vessels helping Iran mitigate some of the blockade's impact - I don't view this as a betrayal, but more of a unfortunately necessary geopolitical tactic, particularly if increased Russian state revenue lets them defeat the NATO-backed forces they're fighting a bit easier. Regardless, it would be very unfortunate if most of Russia's diesel went directly to the US and not to other struggling countries (not least among them, Cuba), as that would give the US a bit more road to kick the can down.

Ukraine has not taken this news well. It can be hard to figure out to what degree Trump is using kayfabe in any particular situation, but Ukraine immediately striking a Russian diesel export station (to which Russia retaliated by knocking out power throughout much of Kiev) seems to have genuinely annoyed him, e.g. saying that Ukraine should get a new leader. He also tried his classic move of willing a ceasefire into existence purely by social media decree. This worked during the Twelve Day War, but not here - at least not yet. I'm currently cautiously disregarding rumors that the US is going to actually take away intelligence or material support from Ukraine. It's not impossible, and would actually be another data point in the trend of the US withdrawing from Europe (with their bombers evacuating their UK base very recently too), but this antagonization of Russia has been a plot in the making for over a decade, and I would be surprised if Trump was allowed by the powers that be to interrupt this plan in any meaningful way. Perhaps there will be some largely symbolic move instead.

Over in West Asia, Ansarallah is tidying up their encirclement of Taiz, with the noose tightening around PLC forces. The Saudi counteroffensive was very Ukrainian; i.e. it existed mostly as a media phenomenon, but somehow even more half-hearted. Their sole territorial acquisition up to me writing this is 10-20 miles of largely empty coastal plains and an airstrip that Ansarallah, without an airforce, has no real use of. In return for Saudi bombing, Ansarallah has continued hitting oil infrastructure, and additionally escalated by striking terminals at King Khalid airport. Ansarallah gave several warnings to immediately evacuate everybody inside, and the Saudis did not even bother to sound the alarm of an incoming missile, which is emblematic of their desperation to maintain the illusion of the pre-war status quo. The strike on Terminal 3 killed about a dozen people and injured a few hundred. While Saudi airlines are trying to maintain operations, several Western airliners are pausing flights for now, which mirrors the air blockade that the Saudis have forced on Yemen for several years. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated strikes on tankers both inside the Strait of Hormuz and far outside it, as it truly starts to slam the hammer down on what limited illegal transits were making it through. This comes in the form of both missile/drone strikes and naval mines and will keep physical oil prices elevated well into the short and medium terms if maintained. Additionally, the US continues its reported buildup of forces for another try at striking Iran, possibly before the midterms, but I sincerely don't know what they could possibly hope to achieve beyond trying to get more votes from chest-thumping jingoistic morons while yet further degrading their position in the region militarily and economically.

Meanwhile, over in Southeast Asia, air pollution has dramatically increased over the past few months due to manmade wildfires in Indonesian forests and peatlands, which were caused by profit-seeking slash-and-burn farmers clearing land with fire, and then further exacerbated by one of the worst El Ninos on record. This bourgeois idiocy has caused untold environmental damage, hundreds of thousands of cases of respiratory illnesses throughout Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, prolonged closures of major institutions like schools, and required the distribution of oxygen cylinders throughout parts of the populace to try and keep them alive and at least vaguely healthy.


Last week's thread is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 28 points 15 hours ago* (4 children)

Isn't this the area Pakistan is supposed to be protecting with their Chinese made HQ-9BE (CH-SA-21) air defence systems? King Abdulaziz Air Base, where Pakistan is operating from, is around 7km from the ARAMCO facility. If hits are landed there, the Pakistani deployment is vulnerable to ballistic attack by Ansar Allah/Houthis in Yemen with their advanced ballistic missiles.

China needs to increase production of the HQ-9C with it's hit to kill/kinetic interceptors with altitude control system/divert rocket motors to improve its ballistic missile defence capabilities as soon as possible, alongside the HQ-19 (THAAD equivalent) for multi layer defence. This technology is needed to intercept ballistics reliably, the last few years have proved that. (Still not hermetic, but better than the alternative). Anti ballistic capability is very important and coming to the forefront as maneuverable re entry vehicle technology proliferates globally.

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  • [–] 10 points 7 hours ago*

    China needs to increase production of the HQ-9C

    Great advice for China. Do you also have tips for what the resistance should do if China gives those to zionist, US-imperialist compradors too? Sabotage them at the source? Seems like legitimate military target.

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  • [–] 14 points 10 hours ago

    Is there any evidence of Pakistan even trying to intercept anything over Saudi atm? Beyond the handful of claims/denials it appears to me as if the deployments are just an expansion of the existing tripwire force, and any requests to intercept anything are being met with shrugs and "eh we'd probably miss lol"

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  • [–] 20 points 13 hours ago (1 child)

    Anti ballistic capability is very important and coming to the forefront as maneuverable re entry vehicle technology proliferates globally.

    Is this cost effective for China, or does it present the same attrition issue as the THAAD, where operating and supplying it is orders of magnitude more expensive than just spamming it with cheap ballistic missiles?

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  • [–] 18 points 13 hours ago*

    I would argue that to make advanced MaRV ballistic missiles "cheap", several design compromises must be made, anywhere from the payload, to performance/range, to terminal guidance. Look at the US Blackbeard missile. It's "cheap" because it carries a payload/warhead of 75lbs and it's range is 800km. In the Iranian case, a Kheibar Shekan with terminal electro optical guidance and anti jamming CPRA antennae is going to cost significantly more than one without it, and Fattah-1 with it's rocket motor in the MaRV borrowed from the Iranian space program, even costlier. So for the attacker, they have to find a balance between performance and cost too. If the US wants to deliver a bigger warhead than Blackbeard, the missile becomes significantly more expensive (PrSM). If Iran wants the accuracy of it's latest variants to be maintained, that technology is expensive to implement. At the end of the day, any defence system can be overwhelmed, and MaRVs with their terminal maneuvering require advanced defence systems to be able to intercept them in the terminal phase of flight.

    As for less sophisticated ballistic missiles that don't maneuver as such, they can be used to saturate systems, but they also don't require the same capability to intercept. But I'd argue that these Scud tier systems are going extinct, because maneuvering, even to a very limited extent on re entry, can be done now by most missiles. Iran even has some limited MaRVs for their liquid fueled missiles like Emad now. It's almost a no brainer to implement. Every new North Korean missile implements the technology, clearly they think the substantially increased costs are worth it, likely because even outside of maneuvering to evade, the possible vast increase in accuracy makes the use of a long range ballistic missile as a conventional weapon possible. Something not possible before, where accuracy was measured in kilometers.

    If the proliferation of maneuvering ballistic missiles makes it easier to overwhelm defence, the answer cannot be to just not defend. Even a limited defence is better than being unable to. Ideally arms treaties (similar to the bilateral treaties during the cold war), could help if everyone realises their vulnerability, but that is very unlikely now. The cat is out of the bag, until someone builds something so scary that arms control becomes a topic of discussion again.

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