this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2023
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Probably not gonna happen this time, but I predict an announcement early next year for release within the year.
For sure they don't want to ruin xmas sales. It would be very dumb to announce a new hardware before the end of the year.
I’m guessing January announcement and releases in April. Makes me wonder what games will be day one release? Metroid, a 3D Super Mario, but surely not a Zelda game. Unless it’s a remake of a game.
I think instead of a new 3D Mario right away we'll get a port of Wonder, especially if it's not backwards compatible. If that's the case, that BotW demo they supposedly showed off at Gamescom may be a hint at a BotW port, though why they would port BotW instead of TotK at this point would be beyond me, especially when BotW was a launch title for their previous console. A different Zelda remake may be a good bet, like an HD/4K version of one of the N64 Zeldas. I still think the new F-Zero may be saved as a launch title for the new console to show off the new hardware. Either way, they need a solid, brand new entry in one of their big franchises or something new and original (a "killer app") to promote immediate adoption, especially if they're apparently releasing so many good games to sunset their previous console. They can't make the same mistakes in the launch lineup that they did with consoles like the GameCube and Wii U.
No way they don't have a new 3d mario for a launch title. It's been 6 years since Odyssey. And they definitely need something like that for the launch. They obviously won't have a new Zelda so Mario is pretty much the only thing they could do. Also maybe Metroid Prime 4, but Metroid hasn't really been a system seller. Also maybe a bit too soon for a new Animal Crossing.