Like the Romans used to drink from lead cups. Something like that.


(it appears that the moderator is removing any replies with which he disagrees. It might be a piefed issue. But all the removed replies are top level and upopular. Stranger coincidences have happened I suppose.)

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[–] 0 points 23 hours ago (8 children)

Women delaying having child to their mid 30s or even later. It just happens that delaying it so far increases all sorts of health risks on top of fertility issues.

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  • [–] 14 points 22 hours ago (5 children)

    No, you're getting confused by the fact that a large percentage increase in a small number is still a small number. And that the healthiest outcomes have an ideal spot at the late 20's to begin with, and that having babies before 25 has slightly elevated risk of poor outcomes, as well.

    Down syndrome risk peaks at around maternal age 44, but with about 0.6% of pregnancies. That's still a small number.

    Other concerns like preterm birth and low birth weight tend to have the healthiest outcomes at maternal age in late 20's. For example, studies like this show that preterm birth is less likely for 30-32 year olds than the broad category of "younger than 30," and low birth weight for gestational age is lower between 30-40 than it is for younger than 30.

    Either way, though, the correlation is so weak and the overall odds are so low that it's like playing with slightly different weighted dice. In the end, maybe some statistical significance might appear across a huge sample size, but for individuals making their own family planning decisions, the probability differentials are too small to place too much weight in those stats. Statistical significance isn't real-world significance.

    Throw in other advantages of delaying birth, like those who defer for educational/career reasons and find themselves in a different demographic category (wealthier, less likely to be divorced) as a result, and it might actually be advantageous for a 20-year-old's future children to intentionally pursue paths that lead to later births.

    Just let people do what they want with family planning: have kids, don't have kids, have kids young, have kids old, have lots of kids, have fewer kids, adopt, IVF, surrogates, whatever. These are deeply personal decisions that people should be left alone on.

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  • [–] 2 points 14 hours ago (1 child)

    Down syndrome risk peaks at around maternal age 44, but with about 0.6%

    Bruh, we're not talking about probability of a single negative event. We're talking about probability of any negative event. It's not the same.

    It's not a secret knowledge that age increases all sorts of risks (not just down syndrome) and optimal window is in the 20s.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 hours ago

    I'm aware, and using that specific example. The risk of all the bad things adding up, though, is still a small delta in absolute terms, for actual pregnancy, and the trends only show up across large enough sample sizes that still aren't that relevant to the lived experience of any given individual child.

    And those same statistics tend to show bad outcomes for the under-25, and awful outcomes for the under-22, even at pregnancy. Basically my argument is that the magnitude of those effects is small, and swings the other way when you're talking about mothers too much younger than 30, too.

    Throw in actual lifetime statistics around household income and wealth, divorce rates, etc., and it seems that looking to the entire childhood, the 30-year-old birth is close to ideal, with 5 years older being no worse than 5 years younger, and even 10 years older being no worse than 10 years younger. The individual variance is so much larger than the magnitude of the statistical trends, so broad population statistics don't matter that much for the individual. It's still a dice roll even if your stats are ideal.

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  • [–] 1 point 14 hours ago (2 children)

    Not better babies - I do think it's harder on the mom's body to have a first baby later (by later I mean 40, around the time I was having my last). At least anecdotally I have seen it play out that way every time among the women I know - though it may just be that they are immediately categorized as high risk and it is a self- fulfilling prophecy.

    Agree (absolutely) that we should leave women alone to do what they think is right for their own lives though. And I was surprised when I looked up my ancestry - most of my more well off foremothers married in their late 20s, not early. So women who had choices, I guess they did wait till near 30 even in the past.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 hours ago (1 child)

    Not better babies - I do think it's harder on the mom's body to have a first baby later (by later I mean 40, around the time I was having my last)

    This is all true, and I don't mean to discount the actual effects on the mother during pregnancy. There's a lot of variance with other health statistics/demographics, too. My wife is convinced that her being tall made her pregnancies easier, based on the not very scientific observation of "I can't imagine this stuff taking up this much space if I were shorter."

    I'm a pretty active parent of elementary school age children, in a mixed income public school. Through my volunteering and involvement, I am friends and acquaintances with dozens of other parents of different ages, education levels, household incomes, family wealth. I can assure you, the challenges of parenthood are different for old parents and young parents, and there are real tradeoffs.

    Personally, I was much more concerned about being old parents, until I actually became one and hung out with other parents. I think ideally, it's worth taking the time to get your shit together first before having kids. To me that means meaningfully getting to know yourself to where you have confidence and security and emotional maturity, screening for and building a good relationship with your future coparent (not marrying your high school or even college sweetheart), and getting your career off the ground. So I think 20-somethings will live their lives with plenty of good reasons to defer having children until around 30, and that there's nothing wrong with planning for a first child after 30, last child by 40, etc. I know enough moms who had kids between 40-45 that it's not that big a deal there, either.

    Pregnancy is a tiny part of overall parenthood, and I'm glad I was closer to 30 when I met my wife, and that we waited until she was between 30-35 when we had our kids, because our lives, and our kids' lives, are better for how we worked on things between the ages of 25-30 (including simply being in love and doing fun child-free things).

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  • [–] 1 point 1 hour ago

    Yeah I'm tall & long - waisted and very sure the vertical space helps. And yeah had easy pregnancies both young & old but I did have the first in my early 20s, last around 40, so obviously plenty well spaced too, not having them back to back & no multiples also easier on the mom.

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